War's Onset: Experts Warn "Next 24 Hours Pivotal"
"The immediate coming 24 hours hold significant importance"
Get ready, folks, because the war is here, and it's just heating up. That's according to Israeli experts who believe the next 24 hours will be decisive.
"We've only just stepped into this conflict," states Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of Iran's military intelligence department and now a security analyst at Tel Aviv University. A press conference held by the European Jewish Association (EJA) discussed Israel's assault on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership. Citrinowicz explained, "The operation isn't over yet. The next 24 hours are critical." When querying further air strikes, an Israeli military spokesperson admitted to working tirelessly, having stayed awake for a staggering 36 hours.
Israel initiated a bold attack on Iran in the morning, with around 200 fighter jets targeting sites in Tehran, the Natanz nuclear facility, and several military bases. Israel claims to have annihilated virtually the entire Iranian air force's leadership and several high-ranking military figures. Following these attacks, more nuclear facility strikes ensued. Iran retaliated with drones and rockets.
Citrinowicz contends that Israel feared the loss of insight into Iran's nuclear program and acted preemptively. While uranium enrichment is supervised by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the path to a nuclear weapon remains clandestine - information relied upon heavily by Israel's government. This intelligence could vanish at any moment, an eventuality the Israeli government did not wish to risk.
"The changes we're witnessing here are dramatic in countless ways," Citrinowicz said. Iran is in a challenging position, needing to determine which targets Israel hit, the extent of the damages, and how to respond. Iran currently lacks significant support from its allies. Historically, the strength of Hezbollah has kept Israel from attacking Iran. Citrinowicz noted that "the axis of resistance, led by Iran, is no longer much in evidence."
Former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, Ruth Wassermann Lande, warned during the EJA press conference that the weakening of Shia extremist groups, like Iran's leadership, Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis, may have broader unforeseen consequences. The political balance in the region is at risk of tipping, she cautioned: "Eliminating the leaders of Shia extremism could inadvertently lead to the strengthening of Sunni extremism." Citrinowicz supports Wassermann Lande's view, hinting that behind closed doors, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf states are likely celebrating.
Navidi and Citrinowicz also addressed the potential role of the USA in the conversation. Wassermann Lande suggested that domestic political pressure could provoke Iran to attack US facilities in Iraq, escalating the conflict. Citrinowicz explained that he couldn't predict the situation's development, but if the USA intervened, the heavily fortified Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow would become a "monumental issue" for Iran. It would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium.
Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, "We are not involved in strikes against Iran." Israel had reportedly informed the USA beforehand. Protecting US troops in the region is Rubio's top priority, and he cautioned Iran against any attacks on US interests. Later, US officials reported that they had intercepted Iranian rockets aimed at Israel, although they didn't offer specifics about the operation, leaving open whether fighter jets or warships were involved.
Insights:
- Analysts anticipate Iran will respond militarily, with direct missile and drone strikes, cyber operations, and the use of regional proxies possibly coming into play.
- The risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Iran remains real, although factors like US involvement, deterrence, and diplomacy are curbing escalation.
- Should Iran seek to rebuild its nuclear ambitions following the immediate conflict, a cycle of risk for renewed confrontation could emerge.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html[2]https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-launches-large-scale-military-exercise-iran-alerts-base-2021-06-25/[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-israel-attack.html[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57617269[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/25/israel-launches-attack-iran-nuclear-facility/
The Commission has also been consulted on the draft directive regarding the escalating war in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Politics and general news outlets have covered war-and-conflicts extensively, as experts warn that the next 24 hours could be pivotal in determining the outcome of this war.
