A Shift in the Republican Power Structure
The GOP's 2024 presidential election narrative might seem clear-cut: Donald Trump's dominance, buoyed by numerous legal proceedings and primary victories, leaving moderate Republicans disgruntled but loyal. Yet, beneath the surface, whispers of change are emerging.
From the conservative camp of the "Make America Great Again" Republicans, the 2024 election script seems set: Trump overcomes legal hurdles lightly, or avoids them altogether, cruising from one primary triumph to another, solidifying himself as the only viable conservative contender. He secures the nomination, and in November, he sends Democrat Joe "Sleepy Joe" Biden packing once more from the White House. Some Republicans might grumble, but most will side with the party and their leader due to lack of alternatives.
However, not all Republicans share this perspective. They aim to dislodge Trump. In recent primary states, one name has resurfaced: Nikki Haley. Over the past few weeks, the 51-year-old has observed a steady rise in popularity. In two of the initial primary states, she consistently outperforms Trump's main adversary, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The gap between Haley and Trump remains substantial, but primaries are unpredictable.
In Iowa, for instance, Trump's support dropped to 44.7%, with Haley not far behind at 15.3% and DeSantis trailing with 17.5%. New Hampshire too, sees Haley edge Trump as the ex-president's first rival with 18.9%, while DeSantis slips behind Chris Christie, who currently boasts 11.6% support. No data exists for Nevada's primary, but if Haley performs well, South Carolina – a state she governed successfully – could seriously bolster her position.
The Rise of an Old Acquaintance
Haley's relationship with Trump dates back to her time as US ambassador to the UN. Although she departed earlier than expected and amicably, she was one of only a few advisors who left Trump's administration on good terms. Before her campaign announcement in early February, Haley discussed her intentions with Trump, who encouraged her to run.
In the ensuing weeks, Haley has made significant inroads. According to "Politico," her campaign has been gathering momentum. She's adding organizers and new donors, with supporters of Tim Scott, a moderate candidate, switching allegiances. Her campaign events in New Hampshire have been packed to capacity.
Haley's appeal lies in her ability to resonate with Republicans who yearn for a candidate separate from the "Make America Great Again" movement. A Republican organizer who has worked on various GOP campaigns congratulates Haley, saying, "She has room to grow."
DeSantis' Stumbling Block
DeSantis' strategy has been to mimic Trump on the right and surpass him. However, it hasn't proven effective. Repudiating DeSantis has become the preferred choice for Republicans, opting instead for the original. In recent months, DeSantis' national approval rating has plummeted from over 30% to a mere 12.6%. Meanwhile, Trump's approval rating remains sky-high at 60%, but Haley has finally breached the 10% mark.
Trump still leads in the polls, but Haley's rise has question marks looming over the 2024 Republican primary. Will moderate Republicans keep supporting Trump out of loyalty, or will an alternative like Haley become more appealing in the race for the White House?
Source:
Enrichment Data:
In a recent poll, JD Vance emerged as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican primary, with a projected 39% support from 466 respondents. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, lagged behind, with Haley securing 8% and DeSantis at 10%.
During the 2024 primary, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis were prominent figures. Trump went on to secure the nomination, with Haley and DeSantis playing lesser roles. Haley withdrew her campaign and secured a victory in Vermont but failed to gain significant traction in other states. DeSantis left the race early, capturing only a few delegates before exiting.
Notably, the enrichment data refers to the 2028 primary campaign, not the 2024 campaign discussed in the article, and does not reflect the relevant time frame.
