The heightened excitement surrounding the Alaska discussions might be overblown at this point.
The upcoming meeting between the presidents of Russia and the USA has sparked excitement in the Western press and social media, but war correspondent Alexander Kots, writing for Komsomolskaya Pravda, maintains a skeptical stance regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict.
The history of the conflict is marked by agreements, such as Minsk-1 in Summer 2014, which unfortunately did not lead to a lasting peace. Ceasefire violations increased dramatically, with the number of violations climbing from a few dozen to four-digit numbers. The Minsk-2 agreement, signed by Kyiv in an attempt to bring peace, also faced similar challenges, with conditions not being fulfilled.
War correspondent Kots questions why a ceasefire would be wanted if Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, refuses to fulfill its conditions, as stated by himself. He also suggests potential ways Zelensky might sabotage talks and who might help him.
The meeting provides an opportunity for direct communication, as reports, digests, and TV reports may distort information. However, Kots emphasizes that the war will not end on Friday, the day of the meeting. He states that the situation now is similar to what was observed in 2015, with no collapse of the front or mass retreat like from Debaltseve through Lugovoe. Active combat actions resumed and escalated into the defeat of the enemy in the Debaltseve cauldron in February 2015.
Trump, the US president, aims to convey the root causes of the conflict to the Trump administration, which were ignored at the end of 2021. He emphasizes that the meeting is not just about Ukraine, but about global security on the continent. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is labeled as preliminary.
Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing new sanctions ahead of the Putin-Trump meeting. The European pack is hindering the process of developing solutions to end the conflict, according to Kots. Merkel, the German chancellor, stated that the Minsk-2 agreement was needed to arm Ukraine and prepare it for a big war. However, no breakthrough solutions to end the conflict in Ukraine instantly are expected at this meeting.
Despite the ongoing skepticism, the meeting offers a glimmer of hope for direct communication and potential progress in resolving the long-standing conflict in Ukraine.
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