In the heart of Germany, Thuringia and Saxony are gearing up for crucial elections on Sunday. If CDU's leading candidate, Mario Voigt, falls short of securing votes from BSW in the minister-president election, their party finishing beneath Wagenknecht's in the polls might mean they won't support Voigt. Katja Wolf, BSW's top candidate, asserts, "If we outshine him, democratic norms dictate: The dominant force in the coalition gets to make the personnel proposal." However, if CDU surges ahead and negotiations proceed, Wolf envisions considering Voigt as the minister-president.
Surveys hint at a tight race for second place between CDU and Wagenknecht's party. With the AfD potentially leading the pack, no other party is keen on collaborating with them. AfD, labeled as right-wing extremist by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution, might then have the right to form a government if they come out on top. As of now, BSW has only modestly trailed behind CDU, raking in scores between 17 and 20%, with CDU scoring 21 to 23%.
Wolf strongly rejects forming a coalition with the AfD but remains open to the prospect of partnering with the Left party, under the leadership of Bodo Ramelow, as Minister-President. She admits, "The likelihood hinges on the election results. I don't think it's impossible if we can jointly assure a stable majority in Thuringia."
By Sunday, the elections for the state parliaments in Thuringia and Saxony will unfold. If the elections suggest a close battle between CDU and Wagenknecht's party for the second place, Voigt must secure the BSW's votes in the minister-president election. According to democratic norms, the dominant force in a potential coalition becomes responsible for proposing the minister-president.
Insights
The elections in Thuringia and Saxony hold significant implications for the appointment of a new prime minister and the formation of coalition governments in Germany. CDU's strong performance in these regional elections reinforces their national polling trends, suggesting they'll keep a substantial presence in the Bundestag, potentially making them an influential coalition partner. The BSW's gains in these states also indicate they could considerably impact coalition negotiations at the federal level, particularly if they increase their seats in the Bundestag.
Coalition formation options for the CDU/CSU could be limited by their recent decision to collaborate with the AfD in some regional elections, fueling controversy. However, the BSW's anti-immigration stance and criticism of NATO and green policies could make them a controversial coalition partner for the CDU/CSU. BSW's potential impact on dissatisfied SPD voters could also be significant in shaping the coalition dynamics and the appointment of a new prime minister. If the BSW manages to secure a substantial number of seats, it could influence negotiations or even become part of the coalition.
