In the political landscape of Thuringia, the announcement of a new prime minister is causing a stir. If CDU's leading candidate Mario Voigt fails to secure votes from BSW, a potential coalition partner, in a minister-president election, he might not be their pick if CDU finishes below the Wagenknecht party in the upcoming elections. Katja Wolf, BSW's top candidate, points out, "If we outperform him, democratic norms dictate: The dominant force in the coalition gets to make the personnel proposal." However, in a scenario where CDU significantly progresses in negotiations, Wolf might consider Voigt for the role.
These political tensions unfold in the context of state parliament elections taking place in Thuringia and Saxony on Sunday. Data from recent surveys hint at a tightly contested race for second place between CDU and the Wagenknecht party. The AfD, a right-wing extremist party as per the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution, might lead the pack, should they win. None of the other parties are inclined to form a coalition with AfD, which leaves the possibility of an AfD-led government. As of now, BSW trails CDU by just a few percentage points, securing scores between 17 and 20 percent, while CDU records 21 to 23 percent.
Wolf firmly rejects the idea of a coalition with the AfD but hasn't ruled out the possibility of partnering with the Left party, led by Thuringia's current Minister-President, Bodo Ramelow. According to her, "The chances depend on the election results. I don't think it's impossible if we can jointly ensure a stable majority in Thuringia."
Sunday marks the day of the elections for state parliaments in Thuringia and Saxony. If these elections yield a close race between CDU and the Wagenknecht party for the second place, as suggested by recent surveys, it is crucial for CDU's leading candidate, Mario Voigt, to secure votes from BSW in the minister-president election. Understanding democratic norms, the dominant force in a potential coalition would propose the minister-president.
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Demand for coalitions can significantly impact political outcomes, especially in tight races. In Thuringia, the state parliament elections have parties scrambling to secure allies. As it stands, CDU and BSW could potentially form a coalition, which would give CDU's leading candidate, Mario Voigt, a chance to become the minister-president. However, if CDU finishes beneath the Wagenknecht party, their chances of securing Voigt's appointment would decrease. If the elections result in a close race between CDU and the Wagenknecht party, it would be essential for CDU's Voigt to secure votes from BSW to become the minister-president.
In recent polls, coalition possibilities in German federal elections are being discussed. One of the most likely scenarios, according to the results, is a black-red coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD). Another possible coalition is a black-yellow coalition (CDU/CSU and FDP), but FDP's polling figures need to reach at least 6 to 7% for a stable majority to be in reach. Black-green and grand coalitions are difficult to implement due to varying ideologies. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the final seat distribution in the Bundestag and the parties' willingness to form coalitions.
