The Final Outcome of the War: Perspectives on Ukraine, Russia, and the Theory of Triumph
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the United States has outlined a strategic approach aimed at supporting Ukraine's resistance while avoiding direct military involvement. This strategy, as outlined in President Joe Biden's policies and the 2022 National Security Strategy, seeks to impose significant costs on Russia and enable Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength.
Sustained Military and Economic Support to Ukraine
The US has committed to providing advanced weaponry, economic aid, and sanctions against Russia to degrade its war capability and bolster Ukraine’s defense. This proxy approach, often referred to as "waging war without going to war," involves the US and NATO supplying full political, economic, and military support short of direct combat involvement.
Deterrence Through Coordinated Western Unity
Biden’s approach involves close coordination with NATO allies and a unified Western front to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and impose consequences on Russia for aggression. This aligns with the broader Biden vision of a rules-based international order where the US, Europe, and allies maintain global stability and manage great power competition through alliances and cooperation.
Pressuring Russia to Negotiate
While supporting Ukraine militarily, Biden’s policy emphasizes pushing Kyiv toward a negotiated settlement to end the war. The goal of continued aid is to provide Ukraine leverage at the bargaining table while deterring escalation that could provoke direct US-Russia conflict or nuclear escalation.
Avoiding Direct US-Russia War
The US explicitly seeks to avoid direct military confrontation with Russia, maintaining that US involvement will not cross the threshold into entering the war itself. This calibrated approach aims to balance support for Ukraine with risks of broader conflict.
Theory of Victory
The Biden administration’s theory of victory is Ukraine’s continued resistance supported by Western aid, leading to Russian military exhaustion and diplomatic compromise under conditions favorable to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The victory is strategic—preserving the international rules-based order and deterring future aggression by demonstrating costs imposed on revisionist powers.
Setting Military Conditions for Negotiation
Objective 8, as stated in the 2022 National Security Strategy, is to set military conditions to give diplomatic options for negotiation, aiming for a steady and assured victory for Ukraine.
President Joe Biden outlined four US objectives in a New York Times op-ed published in May 2022: a democratic, independent, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine; Ukraine with significant weaponry and ammunition; Russia paying a heavy price for its actions; and the sustenance of other peaceful democracies and the rules-based international order.
The United States, along with its allies, has provided rapid support to Ukraine following Russia's invasion last February. However, the US strategy in supporting Ukraine includes continuous assessment of the effectiveness of the support provided to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced Russia's withdrawal from New START talks, raising concerns about nuclear proliferation and the potential for escalation. The article in the New York Post lays out the foreseeable options for how the Russia-Ukraine war could end, emphasizing the need for a conclusion on terms favorable to US security and foreign policy.
It is crucial to note that the US will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. Attaining policy objectives is considered victory in this century. The Budapest Memorandum, which provided assurances on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, has been rendered worthless due to Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014.
Col. (ret) Kevin Benson, PhD, a seasoned military strategist who commanded from company to battalion level and served as a general staff officer from corps to field army, and was the CFLCC J5 (Plans) at the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom and the director of the School of Advanced Military Studies, underscores the importance of linking the use of force to US strategic objectives, as outlined in Eliot Cohen's model for twenty-first-century strategy, which includes a theory of victory as a vital component, defined as "why do we think this will work?" Cohen's theory of victory implies that victory is the result of hard work linking tactical success and operational effect to attaining strategic and policy objectives.
In essence, Biden’s strategy combines robust proxy support, alliance cohesion, diplomatic pressure, and risk-calibrated engagement, aiming to conclude the conflict through Ukrainian resilience backed by the West, without direct US combat involvement. This reflects the 2022 National Security Strategy’s emphasis on major power competition, alliance management, and shaping international norms.
- The US strategy in supporting Ukraine involves providing advanced weaponry and economic aid to bolster Ukraine's defense, with the goal of degrading Russia's war capability.
- The Biden administration seeks to impose consequences on Russia for aggression by maintaining close coordination with NATO allies and a unified Western front, aligning with the vision of a rules-based international order.
- While supporting Ukraine militarily, the policy emphasizes pushing Kyiv toward a negotiated settlement to end the war and provide leverage at the bargaining table, while deterring escalation.
- The US strategy explicitly aims to avoid direct military confrontation with Russia, maintaining that US involvement will not cross the threshold into entering the war itself.
- The US strategic objectives include a democratic, independent, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine, Ukraine with significant weaponry and ammunition, Russia paying a heavy price for its actions, and the sustenance of other peaceful democracies and the rules-based international order.
