The essential differences between black-red signals and traffic lights, explained
Germany's Black-Red Coalition Faces Challenges After First 100 Days
After 100 days in office, Germany's Black-Red Coalition, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), is grappling with internal mistrust, weak public support, and policy gridlock. The coalition, which includes the CDU/CSU and SPD, has passed several laws such as growth boosters, budget, pension package, "construction turbo," and migration policy. However, its ability to deliver on major campaign pledges and unify remains uncertain.
Internal Disputes and Mistrust
The coalition is facing significant tensions, particularly concerning disagreements over key policies such as the electricity tax and the failed election of an SPD judge to the Federal Constitutional Court. These disputes have eroded trust and raised questions about coalition discipline. Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil acknowledges the tension within the coalition but denies comparisons to the Traffic Light coalition.
Poor Public Approval Ratings
Satisfaction with the government and Chancellor Merz is very low, with only about 29% approving of their work and 67-69% dissatisfied. Merz's communication style and trustworthiness are also widely doubted by the public.
Failure to Fulfill Election Promises
The coalition has yet to deliver on major campaign pledges such as reducing migration, boosting economic growth, reforming social welfare without new debt, and improving infrastructure. This lack of progress contributes to disappointing poll numbers for the coalition, with the CDU/CSU support dropping below 25%, overtaken by the far-right AfD as Germany’s largest party.
Pressure from the Rising Far-Right
The AfD is capitalizing on the coalition's weaknesses, gaining ground as the major political force despite attempts by mainstream parties to isolate it.
Economic and Budgetary Stress
The government faces large budget gaps and upcoming state elections in 2026, forcing it to balance austerity, reform pressure, and growing political competition. Critics accuse the coalition of being a “fearful protector of the status quo,” failing to enact necessary reforms and sedating the economy with subsidies.
Political Fallout from Migration Policy Controversies
Merz’s attempts to pass restrictive migration and homeland security measures—sometimes with votes from the AfD—have triggered protests and criticism from within the coalition and from major political and civil society figures, fueling further tension.
Foreign Policy Successes
Despite the domestic challenges, the coalition has had success in foreign policy, with successful meetings with US President Donald Trump, NATO summit, and positive relations with Europe.
Uncertain Future
The resolution of the judges' dispute before the next election round in Karlsruhe in the Bundestag in September is uncertain. The coalition also faces a budget gap of around 172 billion euros in the financial planning for 2027 to 2029. Two issues are causing significant tension within the coalition: the electricity tax and the failed election of new judges for the Federal Constitutional Court. Both proposals go beyond the coalition agreement and have provoked the partner.
The SPD Leader Baerbelt sees a need for further talks with the Union due to the coalition's behavior, which has caused wounds within the SPD. The Union faction, once a "chancellor's election association" like it was in the times of Helmut Kohl or Angela Merkel, is no longer in that position. Especially the Union is betting on the economy picking up to fill the state coffers with tax revenue, but this is a risky bet.
CSU leader Markus Söder has proposed cutting funds for Ukrainian refugees, a move that has been criticised. There is a lack of common spirit beyond the leadership level in the coalition. Merz's decision to partially halt arms exports to Israel without consulting the Union faction has also caused criticism.
In summary, after 100 days, the Black-Red Coalition is grappling with internal mistrust, weak public support, policy gridlock, and political pressure from both the far-right and within its base. Its ability to unify and deliver substantive reforms remains uncertain going into the summer break and ahead of key elections.
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