The contrast between black-red hues and conventional traffic lights, and what features set them apart

The Black-Red coalition, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is facing a series of challenges and contentions as it navigates the complexities of governance. Internal disputes, mistrust between coalition partners, and difficulties managing fiscal pressures are just a few of the hurdles this coalition is currently grappling with.

Internal Disputes and Mistrust

The relationship between the Union (CDU/CSU) and SPD is strained, with a gap of approximately 172 billion euros in their financial planning for the years 2027 to 2029. This financial discrepancy, coupled with disagreements over issues like electricity tax and the failed election of an SPD judge to the Federal Constitutional Court, has caused significant damage to coalition discipline.

Great mistrust towards Union faction leader Spahn has emerged since the judges' dispute, with Spahn failing to rally his faction behind a previously agreed decision, causing disappointment to Merz. Similarly, the CSU felt sidelined by Merz's decision on arms exports to Israel, leading to criticism and tension within the coalition.

Fiscal Pressures and Looming State Elections

Economic concerns are a major factor in the coalition's challenges. Especially the Union is banking on the economy picking up to fill the state coffers with tax revenue, but this is a risky bet. The alternative to relying on the economy is saving, but that's unlikely to work without reforming the social systems.

Five state elections in 2026, including Saxony-Anhalt with a strongly represented AfD, are casting their shadows over the coalition's financial planning. The pressure to deliver on election promises such as reducing migration, boosting economic growth, and reforming social welfare without incurring new debt is immense. However, these objectives are proving difficult to achieve, leading to criticism that the coalition acts as a "fearful protector of the status quo" rather than implementing reforms.

Public Dissatisfaction

Public dissatisfaction with the Black-Red coalition is high, with polls showing only 28% satisfaction with the government. This low approval rating is due in part to widespread doubts about Merz's communication and trustworthiness. Economic concerns and slow infrastructural improvements also weigh heavily on public opinion.

Immigration policy, perceived as aligning with far-right positions, has drawn criticism even from former Chancellor Angela Merkel. This perception, combined with the coalition's struggles to deliver on its promises, has led to a loss of public confidence.

Comparison with the Traffic Light Coalition

Compared to the preceding Traffic Light coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) under Olaf Scholz, which collapsed after three years due to budget disputes, the Black-Red coalition began with hopes of greater stability and improved governance. However, only 100 days in, Merz's coalition is showing similar patterns of dispute and mistrust, raising questions about whether it will avoid the same pitfalls.

Unlike the Traffic Light coalition, which was marked by ideological differences and failed budget compromises, the Black-Red coalition is struggling more with coalition discipline and delivering reforms promised in the election. Both coalitions face challenges balancing austerity, reform, and political competition, but the Black-Red coalition is criticized for cementing the welfare state and avoiding economic stimulus, potentially deepening debt, whereas the Traffic Light coalition was more openly divided over budgetary priorities.

In summary, the Black-Red coalition’s main challenges are internal divisions, failure to fulfill key promises (especially on migration and economy), and poor public confidence, echoing some of the instability seen under the previous Traffic Light government but with distinct emphasis on fiscal restraint and conservative social policy tensions. The coalition will need to address these challenges effectively to regain public trust and deliver on its promises.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-coalition-facing-disputes-over-arms-exports-to-israel-2022-02-28/ [2] https://www.dw.com/en/german-coalition-struggles-with-disputes-over-arm-exports-to-israel/a-60935958 [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/world/europe/germany-coalition-merz.html [5] https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-coalition-struggles-with-disputes-over-arm-exports-to-israel/

The contrast between black-red hues and conventional traffic lights, and what features set them apart