The conflict is no longer primarily about land claims.
In recent days, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown signs of intensifying, with both sides taking aggressive actions that have raised concerns globally. Since the start of hostilities, Russian radical propagandists have consistently called for targeting Ukrainian decision-making centers and Dnieper bridges. On September 7, this call to action became a reality as 'Iskander' missiles struck a Ukrainian government building in Kyiv, marking the first such strike since the war began. On the same night, a bridge over the Dnieper in Kremenchuk was also struck. The war is no longer about territory and other known Russian demands from Ukraine. The recent escalation is largely aimed at creating better conditions for a large-scale offensive, but this also leads to the exhaustion of forces and the strengthening of countermeasures. The timeline for Russia's large-scale offensive on the Donbas region is limited, as the fall-winter season is approaching, when troop movements will become visible. Such an offensive could potentially be the last major one in this war. Ukraine has also been taking proactive measures, targeting oil refineries in Russia. Strikes on these oil refineries have decreased Russia's oil refining capacity by 13 to 17 percent. In addition, Ukrainian drones have attacked the Druzhba oil pipeline several times in August and September. The US has been providing significant support to Ukraine, with the approval of two weapons packages totalling a billion dollars. These packages, paid for by European countries, include various weapon systems, such as the delivery of Patriot missile systems announced by President Trump in July 2025. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not improved and has become more complex, with Europe considering various options for seizing frozen Russian assets, including purchasing free eurobonds, with Russia's future agreement to pay compensation to Ukraine being a condition. In a related development, Lukashenko made an interesting statement on September 16, stating that Belarus supposedly shot down drones flying into its airspace towards Poland, and called for resistance against 'Polish designs' and to 'unravel them.' On September 10, 19 Russian drones flew into Poland from Belarus, with Polish authorities identifying these drones as 'Gerber' drones without a warhead, traditionally used as decoys in attacks on Ukraine. Joint Russia-Belarus exercises 'Zapad-2025' were held in Belarus from September 12 to 16, with American military observers present. If neither side can win on the battlefield, the front will eventually stabilize, which is a necessary condition for freezing the conflict. However, the war is objectively disadvantageous, even pointless, for Russia, with the decrease in the intensity of offensive actions, which previously occurred almost throughout the front, now concentrated mainly in Donbas. In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, with both sides taking aggressive actions and seeking to gain an advantage. The conflict has become more complex, with Europe considering various options for seizing frozen Russian assets and Lukashenko's controversial statements about Poland. The war is objectively disadvantageous for Russia, with the decrease in the intensity of offensive actions and the potential for a last major offensive on the Donbas region. The international community will continue to monitor the situation closely and seek a peaceful resolution to this ongoing conflict.
