Thaksin expresses certainty that Paetongtarn will maintain Prime Minister role, outlining four significant factors
Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, expresses confidence in his daughter's ability to weather the ongoing ethics case and continue her tenure. This confidence is rooted in several factors, including the Shinawatra family's historical resilience, ongoing political and party support for Paetongtarn, her active policy agenda, and a lack of strong alternatives.
The Shinawatra family has a history of surviving political and legal crises. Having weathered two military coups and three court rulings that toppled multiple governments, including their own, the family has demonstrated an impressive ability to endure adversity[4].
Paetongtarn's political backing is evident, as she survived a no-confidence vote despite opposition allegations that she is controlled by her father. Her administration's focus on economic recovery and social welfare, emphasizing stability and continuation of key programs like social guaranteed income, may bolster public and coalition support[1][3].
Despite being suspended by the Constitutional Court over a leaked call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen amid border disputes, Paetongtarn defended her actions as negotiation tactics and argued she did not damage Thailand’s interests[2].
Thaksin's confidence may also stem from the limited political replacement within the Pheu Thai party. With only one other candidate, former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri, who would need support from Thaksin or the party to command a parliamentary majority, the field is relatively narrow[4].
The political situation remains volatile, with court rulings pending, including a critical August 29, 2025 decision. However, Thaksin's position as a "backroom operator" and driving force suggests he expects to maintain influence or orchestrate political outcomes favouring his daughter[4].
Thaksin also hints at a "special signal" that could turn the situation around for his daughter. The ethics case against Paetongtarn involves a voice recording between her and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen[3].
Meanwhile, the conservative establishment in Thailand continues to harbour doubts, with some suggesting that the Thailand-Cambodia conflict and delay tactics may be a factor in the challenges facing Paetongtarn's leadership[4]. As the legal proceedings unfold, the future of Thailand's political landscape remains uncertain, but Thaksin's confidence underscores his belief that the Shinawatra family will once again navigate the storm.
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