Texas NASCAR Cup Series Forecast, Odds, Selection - 4th May 2025
Gear up, race fans! The NASCAR Cup Series is off to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas for the Wurth 400. Let's dive into our unofficial, guided betting picks for this thrilling event.
Texas, with its 1.5-mile track, has been a low-wear track post-repair in 2017. It shares similarities with Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte, while maintaining its distinct identity. Last year, it was Chase Elliott taking the checkered flag, with Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Daniel Suarez rounding out the top five.
Without further ado, here are the odds for the NASCAR Cup Series at Texas, courtesy of FanDuel:
NASCAR Odds: Cup Series at Texas Odds
| Driver | Odds ||-------|-----|| Kyle Larson | 4/1 || William Byron | 5/1 || Tyler Reddick | 7/1 || Ryan Blaney | 9/1 || Denny Hamlin | 9/1 || Christopher Bell | 10/1 || Bubba Wallace | 16/1 || Chase Briscoe | 18/1 || Chase Elliott | 18/1 || Joey Logano | 20/1 || Kyle Busch | 22/1 || Alex Bowman | 25/1 || Ross Chastain | 25/1 || Josh Berry | 28/1 || Ty Gibbs | 30/1 || Brad Keselowski | 30/1 || Chris Buescher | 30/1 || Daniel Suarez | 50/1 || Austin Cindric | 60/1 || Carson Hocevar | 60/1 || Noah Gragson | 85/1 |
How to Watch NASCAR at Texas
TV: FS1
Time: 3:30 PM ET / 12:30 PM PT
Watch Nascar LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)
Favorites To Win NASCAR at Texas
Kyle Larson leads the pack as the favorite, but his recent performances have not met expectations. He won in 2021, but subsequent races have shown signs of struggle. In 2022, he finished ninth, leading 19 laps. In 2023, he started 11th, leading 99 laps but ending in 31st place. Last time out, he started first, leading 77 laps, but finished 21st. Regardless, he has a win here, as well as a runner-up and two fifth-place finishes.
William Byron has been a standout at this track. In his last four races here, he has placed in the top seven in each of them. In 2021, he led 55 laps and finished second. Further, in 2022, he finished in seventh after leading 42 laps. In the 2023 race, Byron started further back, starting 18th, but led six laps and secured the victory. Last year, he started sixth and moved up to third.
Similar to the top contenders, Reddick also has a win at Texas. Reddick has competed in six points producing races here and has made the top ten in all but two. In 2021, he finished in second, starting 24th. After a ninth-place finish in 2021, he led 70 laps and won the race. Reddick struggled to a 25th-place finish in 2023 but did lead 36 laps. He led 37 laps last year and finished fourth.
Denny Hamlin has excelled at this track, with wins in 2010 and again in 2019. Since then, he has had solid finishes. Last year was tough, as he led 37 laps but finished 30th. However, in 2023, he started tenth and finished fifth.
Sleepers To Watch NASCAR at Texas
Joey Logano does have a win here but hasn't seen a victory since 2014. That said, he has enjoyed quality finishes since then. Last year, he led 14 laps and finished 11th. In 2022, Logano led 15 laps and finished second. Over the past few years, Logano has finished in the top four at Texas in 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015.
Brad Keselowski may not have a win here, but he has been solid in his last six races. Since 2020, he has finished inside the top ten in all six races at Texas. In the 2020 season opener, he finished ninth, while placing sixth in the fall race. Brad was fourth in 2021 and led 31 laps in 2022, finishing eighth. After a seventh-place finish in 2023, Keselowski placed second last year after starting 22nd.
Daniel Suarez carries long odds but should not be overlooked. He does not have a win here, but did finish third in both races in 2019. In general, he has made the top ten in three of the last four races at Texas. That includes an eighth-place finish in 2023 and fifth place last year.
Our NASCAR Prediction & Pick for Texas
This 1.5-mile track is straightforward, demanding only pure racing skill and effective pit work. The odds for this NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas confirm this.
Kyle Larson has been the top choice for this race, but performances have been hit or miss lately. Still, William Byron has been impressive this season. He already has a win and five top-five finishes. Given his history on this track, another strong performance is on the horizon.
The sleepers should perform well in this race, but a podium finish could prove difficult.
NASCAR at Texas Prediction & Pick:
- Byron Winner (+500)
- Larson Top 3 (+105)
- Keselowski Top 10 (+105)
Given the track's characteristics and the drivers' past performances, it's likely that Daniel Suarez, with his consistent top-ten finishes at Texas, could round out the top ten again.
In the race for the checkered flag, it seems likely that either Kyle Larson or William Byron could be leading the pack by rounding the final lap, given their past performances and current odds.
Brad Keselowski, given his consistent finishes at Texas, is likely to have another strong showing, which may mean a top-three finish for him.
Given the straightforward nature of the track and Byron's impressive season so far, it's likely that he is the driver to beat in this race, with a good chance of taking the checkered flag first.
