Terrorist activities by ISIS are escalating in Iraq and Syria.
The seeming quietude of the Islamic State (IS) should not lull us into complacency. Security experts are cautioning that the radical Islamist group could exploit the turmoil in Syria for a resurgence. Reports suggest that IS is rebuilding its strength, with fighters being activated, weapons distributed, targets identified, and new recruits sought in Syria and neighboring Iraq.
Last year offered a chilling example of IS's resilience. As Syrian anti-government rebels advanced on the capital Damascus, IS commanders from the Raqqa region dispatched two supporters to Iraq to orchestrate attacks. These operatives were caught at a checkpoint in northern Iraq, but not before their intelligence led Iraqi security forces to intercept a suicide bomber at a restaurant in Daquq city and prevent a potential massacre.
Although IS efforts have so far had limited impact, security forces in Syria and Iraq have reportedly disrupted around a dozen attack plans this year. IS attacks in Syria have even decreased, with only 38 incidents claimed by the group in the first five months of 2025. If this trend continues, the number of IS attacks for the year is projected to be around 90, a third of the number in the previous year.
However, these statistics do not imply the group's decline. In reality, the group may be simply reorganizing for a new assault. Rita Katz, director of the SITE Intelligence Group, posits that the reduction in attacks is likely due to IS entering a phase of realignment. In the face of the Syrian civil war's lengthy aftermath and the unstable situation in Syria, a new Islamist leader, Ahmed al-Scharaa, is attempting to unite an increasingly divided nation. The leaders of Syria and Israel are also dealing with internal strife, adding to the unrest.
US President Donald Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Syria last month has been perceived as a boost for al-Scharaa, who, during his days at Al Qaeda affiliates, fought against IS. After meeting with the Syrian leader on May 14 in Saudi Arabia, Trump urged al-Scharaa to curb the growth of IS. Despite US plans to reduce its troop presence in Syria from approximately 2,000 to half this year, concerns remain about the potential for IS to establish safe havens in the region. Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute argues that the diminishing Syrian interim government is struggling to maintain control across the country.
Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Kasra has emphasized the importance of developing intelligence and enhancing security services to combat any potential threats. The Islamic State, at its peak between 2014 and 2017, controlled about a third of Syria and Iraq, imposing its extreme interpretation of Islamic law and committing heinous acts of violence. Security experts are not anticipating a complete IS takeover, but they caution against underestimating the group's resilience.
Key Points
- Fears of Resurgence: IS is rebuilding its strength, with attempts to reactivate fighters, recruit new members, and boost its presence in Syria and Iraq.
- Reduced U.S. Troop Presence: The decrease in U.S. and coalition patrols in eastern Syria has allowed ISIS to exploit security gaps, reestablish sleeper cells, and launch attacks on critical infrastructure.
- Reactivation of Fighters: ISIS is attempting to reactivate fighters and recruit new members, taking advantage of political instability and reduced military presence.
- Lack of Prioritization: Assad and Russian forces have not prioritized defeating ISIS, focusing instead on threats to the Syrian regime.
- Security Measures: Effective counter-terrorism efforts require better intelligence sharing between U.S. forces and local security forces, pre-emptive raids, enhanced drone surveillance, and counter-propaganda campaigns.
- Stabilization and Governance: Addressing political instability and ensuring stable governance in both countries can reduce the appeal of extremist groups like ISIS.
- Empowering Local Forces: Delegating more responsibility to local forces can help maintain security and prevent ISIS resurgence.
The European Union, in light of the potential resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq, should prioritize general news, crime-and-justice, and politics associated with these war-and-conflicts, as understanding the intricate dynamics of the region is crucial for informed decision-making and effective counter-terrorism strategies. IS, despite seeming to diminish in recent statistics, is reorganizing itself for a potential new assault, possibly exploiting the political instability in the Syrian Union. Hence, the European Union's involvement in enhancing intelligence, supporting local forces, and promoting stabilization and governance in these troubled countries becomes crucial to prevent a resurgence of IS.
