Tensions mount over the future of the Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, remains legally in force despite India's unilateral suspension in April 2023. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs the allocation of water from the six rivers of the Indus Basin, which are critical for Pakistan's agriculture, energy, and drinking water.
India's suspension came after a terrorist attack near Pahalgam, and the country cited national security concerns as the reason. However, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in June 2025 that India cannot unilaterally suspend or hold the treaty in "abeyance." The court reaffirmed the treaty's validity and its jurisdiction to hear disputes under it. India, however, rejected this ruling, calling the court illegal and its decisions void.
Following the suspension, India took measures such as stopping water flow from the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River and conducting reservoir flushing outside treaty provisions without notifying Pakistan. Pakistan has strongly condemned these actions, considering any disruption of water flow an act of war, and has issued stern warnings including threats of military response.
Pakistan depends on the Indus system for irrigation of 80% of its cultivated land and hydropower providing about 27% of electricity. The suspension of the treaty risks severe consequences for Pakistan’s water security, food production, and disaster management. For instance, the loss of hydrological data sharing crucial for flood forecasting could pose a significant threat.
The suspension in 2025 was part of a broader strategic and political frustration with the treaty, which India argues is outdated and disproportionately favors Pakistan. In 2023 and 2024, India sought treaty modifications and formally issued notices to Pakistan, but these efforts and subsequent unilateral suspension have escalated tensions further.
The Indus Waters Treaty currently finds itself in a state of legal and operational stalemate. India has suspended cooperation, but the treaty remains legally binding. Pakistan, on the other hand, warns of severe consequences and possible conflict if disruptions continue.
Stepping away from the treaty could allow India to pursue building infrastructure it was previously restricted from developing, potentially disrupting Pakistan's irrigation system and key reservoirs. Conversely, the suspension of the treaty is seen as an opportunity for Pakistan to improve its on-farm water governance and build resilience into its water system.
The treaty allows India limited use of the western rivers for hydropower development and irrigation, provided downstream flows remain unaffected. However, India's actions have raised concerns about the integrity of these assurances. Real-time ground-gauge data remains vital for effective flood forecasting, but India has been sharing limited information in recent years.
Longstanding mistrust between provinces has paralyzed decision-making on water in Pakistan, making institutional reforms urgent. Per capita water availability in Pakistan has dropped from 1,100 cubic metres in 2011 to 908 in 2017, nearing the critical scarcity threshold of 500. Almost 80% of Pakistan's produce comes from irrigated agriculture, not rain-fed.
The recent developments have highlighted the need for reform in Pakistan's water management system. Farmers across the country express concerns about the suspension. Mahmood Nawaz Shah, a farmer in Sindh's Tando Allayar district, shares similar concerns, while Aamer Bhandara, a farmer in Pakpattan, Punjab, called the suspension "excessive and unjustified." The suspension of the treaty has sent ripples of anxiety across Pakistan's farming communities.
Despite the challenges, the Indus Waters Treaty remains a critical piece of the water management puzzle for both India and Pakistan. The need for dialogue, cooperation, and adherence to the treaty's principles has never been more pressing.
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