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Conflict between Israel and Iran: Germany's Role in the Confrontation - Tensions Between Israel and Iran: Examining Germany's Involvement
The intensifying fight between Israel and Iran in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the region, teetering on the brink of a devastating inferno. This confrontation has sparked a heated debate in Germany, questioning its ties with Israel, with the Iranian conflict adding fuel to the fire.
Here are eight reasons why Germany remains deeply entwined in this complicated situation:
- Israel - MakingSplit Decisions
The survival and safety of the State of Israel, in light of the six million Jewish lives lost at the hands of Nazi Germany, is a matter of great importance for the Federal Government. The Federal Government also views this as a responsibility to help de-escalate the situation through mediation efforts.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has made swift visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman following the outbreak of war, seeking opportunities to reignite negotiations.
This Wednesday, crisis diplomacy continues, with Wadephul meeting his Jordanian counterpart Aiman al-Safadi in Berlin, and using his contacts with Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar for telephone diplomacy.
Qatar is regarded as an essential intermediary between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza conflict, while Oman boasts remarkable connections to Tehran. Behind the scenes, preparations for a new mediation mission are likely underway, potentially involving a coordinated action by Europeans and Arab neighboring states of Iran.
- Old Friends and New Enemies
Germany has traditionally strong ties with Iran - ties that Wadephul hopes to expand on. The Federal Republic maintains the largest diplomatic presence in Tehran among Europeans, including Britain. For years, Germany, alongside France and Britain, has been involved in negotiations with Iran to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon.
- Peace in the Middle East Matters
An additional nuclear state in Iran would further destabilize the Middle East and create more international unrest. This is not in anyone's best interest, including Germany's. The foreign policy spokesman of the Union faction, Jürgen Hardt (CDU), stated on Monday on RTL/ntv that the attack could bring a "realpolitik" advantage to the Arab world by potentially setting back the Iranian nuclear program, "so that we can enter into new reasonable negotiations."
It's a delicate situation, especially given the criticism of the hardline approach of the Israeli government in the Gaza Strip in Berlin. However, for Germany's security, it is crucial that the powder keg in the Middle East doesn't explode altogether.
- Rising Costs at Home
The escalation has already hit German pockets. The war is pushing up oil prices, causing motorists to fork out more at the pumps. On Monday, a liter of Super E10 cost 1.695 euros and a liter of diesel 1.586 euros, each about four cents more than the Thursday before the war began.
Heating oil prices have also increased significantly. According to an analysis by the comparison portal Verivox, 100 liters of heating oil now cost around 94 euros (as of June 16). In May, the average price was 87 euros.
- Oil Crisis Looms
The concern about an oil crisis is running high. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transport route at the southern tip of the country. So far, the price of Brent oil has risen relatively moderately to around 74 dollars per barrel (159 liters).
If the war escalates further, the oil price could quickly rise above the 80-dollar mark. "120 dollars and more could be back on the radar if tankers can no longer move freely," says Stephen Innes of asset manager SPI Asset Management. Oil was last that expensive in May 2022 after Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Rising oil prices would also stoke inflation in Germany, eroding purchasing power for consumers. Falling energy prices were a significant factor in why inflation has normalized and was at a rate of 2.1 percent in May.
- Economic Jeopardy
The war in the Middle East poses a threat to the German economy, which is slowly recovering after years of crisis. The war could also have an impact on inflation, as warned by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently. "If there were to be a prolonged, serious conflict, oil prices could rise significantly." This could alter economic prospects significantly, said Nagel, "both in terms of the economy and prices."
- Stock Markets Take a Hit
While stock markets have remained surprisingly resilient, the conflict has not left the German leading index unaffected. The Dax has moved significantly away from its recent record of 24,479 points, and prices continued to fall on Tuesday.
This affects the approximately 12 million shareholders in Germany, who are often heavily invested in the home market. In addition to the global trade dispute with US President Donald Trump, another risk factor has been added that's likely to keep the stock market on edge for some time.
- Aviation Disruptions
Many airlines have canceled or diverted flights in the region - including Emirates and Lufthansa. The largest German airline has suspended flights to and from Tehran and Tel Aviv until the end of July, and flights to and from Amman (Jordan), Erbil (Iraq), and Beirut (Lebanon) have been canceled until June 20.
This also applies to Lufthansa Cargo's freight business. The impact on tourism is likely to be limited, as the Middle East is not one of the major tourist destinations for Germans.
- Amidst the escalating tension between Israel and Iran, the German government is wrestling with the implications of its foreign policy towards both nations, particularly in light of its historical ties with Israel and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Iran.
- The war in the Middle East not only poses a threat to the security and stability of the region but also raises concerns about its potential impact on Germany's economy, stock markets, and energy prices, underlining the multifaceted nature of the country's involvement.
