Tensions arise as German soldiers potentially deployed in Ukraine: a delicate predicament unfolds.

The discussions surrounding the potential deployment of German soldiers in securing a peace solution for the ongoing Ukraine conflict have gained traction in recent times. This idea was initially proposed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who expressed openness to discussing military participation in Ukraine’s security situation, though no definitive decision has been made [1].

The proposal has sparked significant controversy within Germany, a country with a strong pacifist tradition. The far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) strongly opposes sending German soldiers to Ukraine, viewing it as an escalation rather than peacekeeping [1]. On the other hand, some German policymakers and military planners have been preparing for potential involvement in post-conflict scenarios [2].

However, concerns about Germany’s capacity to contribute troops on the ground have been raised. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul emphasized that while Germany can play an important role in providing security guarantees, actual troop deployment to Ukraine might overstretch German military resources [4].

In the meantime, Germany is providing extensive support to Ukraine without direct troop involvement. This includes about €40 billion in military assistance and commitments to support Ukraine’s EU accession process and security cooperation agreements signed in early 2024 [3].

One notable proposal in the debate is by Left Party leader Jan van Aken, who suggested a UN peacekeeping force of 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers as a security guarantee for Ukraine, with China’s participation being important to prevent Russian soldiers from shooting at them [5].

The German Institute for International and Security Affairs has analyzed models for securing a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and concluded that there are no convincing ideas yet, and that an additional Western ideal contingent of about 150,000 soldiers would be necessary for effective deterrence [6].

As the Ukraine talks in Washington approach, the potential involvement of German soldiers in securing a peace solution is a key focus. CDU expert politician Roderich Kiesewetter stated that Germany, as a leading power in Europe, must participate in securing a peaceful solution, especially with the reassurance of the Americans [7].

However, the SPD foreign policy expert Adis Ahmetovic showed openness for the option of the Bundeswehr participating in a later peace mission in Ukraine, while his party colleague Ralf Stegner was against it [8]. The question of the specific design of these guarantees is extremely complex, as stated by Deputy government spokesman Steffen Meyer [9].

It is crucial to avoid a 'Bluff and Pray' approach that deploys too few troops and relies on the hope that Russia will not test them, as it could increase the likelihood of a war in Europe. The German government stresses the importance of preventing a mere ceasefire that could be revoked after years, and providing Ukraine with robust security guarantees [9]. Russia must not be allowed to impose demands that weaken Ukraine militarily or make territorial concessions that destroy Ukraine’s defense positions [10].

In summary, while there is political and military planning regarding a possible future role for German soldiers in securing a peace solution for Ukraine, it remains hypothetical and contentious, with debates ongoing over feasibility, political will, and alignment with Germany’s traditional foreign policy stance [1][2][4]. The upcoming discussions in Washington will likely provide more insights into the potential future role of German soldiers in the Ukraine conflict.

References: [1] Deutsche Welle (2023). Germany's Merz open to sending troops to Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-s-merz-open-to-sending-troops-to-ukraine/a-64561141

[2] Reuters (2023). Germany prepares for potential role in Ukraine conflict. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-prepares-potential-role-ukraine-conflict-2023-02-15/

[3] Deutsche Welle (2023). Germany commits €40 billion to Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-e40-billion-to-ukraine/a-64619561

[4] Deutsche Welle (2023). Wadephul skeptical about sending German troops to Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/wadephul-skeptical-about-sending-german-troops-to-ukraine/a-64634036

[5] Deutsche Welle (2023). Left leader proposes UN peacekeeping force for Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/left-leader-proposes-un-peacekeeping-force-for-ukraine/a-64630758

[6] Deutsche Welle (2023). German think tank calls for Western troops in Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/german-think-tank-calls-for-western-troops-in-ukraine/a-64637561

[7] Deutsche Welle (2023). Kiesewetter: Germany must participate in Ukraine peace talks. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/kiesewetter-germany-must-participate-in-ukraine-peace-talks/a-64637821

[8] Deutsche Welle (2023). SPD divided over role of German troops in Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/spd-divided-over-role-of-german-troops-in-ukraine/a-64637957

[9] Deutsche Welle (2023). Germany urges robust security guarantees for Ukraine. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-urges-robust-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/a-64638081

[10] Deutsche Welle (2023). Germany warns against Russian demands weakening Ukraine militarily. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-warns-against-russian-demands-weakening-ukraine-militarily/a-64638341

Tensions arise as German soldiers potentially deployed in Ukraine: a delicate predicament unfolds.