Tension escalating in Azerbaijan as military action could be imminent, following the breakdown of negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Tensions continue to simmer between Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, as their visions and goals for the ongoing discussions remain poles apart.
Two weeks ago, Azerbaijan extended an invitational olive branch to Karabakh representatives, urging them to arrive in Baku to continue talks on reintegration. However, Karabakh officials swiftly dismissed the invitation, insisting that such meetings should occur within an internationally recognized format. This apparent political divergence presents a significant roadblock to the resolution of this long-standing conflict.
Azerbaijan sees these discussions as crucial steps to cementing its sovereignty over the region, while Karabakh Armenian leaders are hesitant to engage in political dialogues without international mediators. In contrast, previous encounters, mediated by Russian peacekeepers, mainly tackled humanitarian, infrastructure, and technical issues.
The conflicting parties have recently witnessed an escalation of incidents, such as the clash on March 5, which left casualties on both sides. This skirmish led to accusations from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Whilst Karabakh claimed an unprovoked Azerbaijani attack on a police patrol, Azerbaijan countered that Armenian vehicles were transporting military supplies to bypass the controversial Lachin corridor blockade.
With the denial of a blockade and opposing accounts of weapons transportation, the events that transpired have sparked suspicion that Azerbaijan might soon intensify militarily, justifying these actions as responses to alleged Armenian provocations.
Political analysts such as Tigran Grigoryan and Farid Shafiyev have expressed skepticism, suggesting that the Baku invitation for talks might be a ruse to pave the way for a new escalation, with either party playing the role of the innocent victim.
The Azerbaijani Defense Minister, Zakir Hasanov, went on the record to assert that Armenia was stirring up trouble in the region, threatening the possibility of a decisive military response to any provocation.
News outlets have reported a steady drumbeat of heated rhetoric from Azerbaijani media outlets, discussing potential Armenian provocations and anti-terrorist operations. These developments cause concern over the brewing tension amid fragile efforts to forge a comprehensive peace deal.
The most substantial obstacle between both nations stems from Armenia's demand for a separate, internationally mediated peace process with Karabakh, while Azerbaijan maintains that the matter of Karabakh and its ethnic Armenian population is purely internal.
Recent remarks from Hikmet Hajiyev, the foreign policy advisor to President Ilham Aliyev, reaffirm Azerbaijan's stance on the matter, implying guarantees for Karabakh Armenians' rights and security in accordance with the nation's constitution and legal framework.
In contrast, Karabakh's foreign ministry reiterated its readiness to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, emphasizing international law norms.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia also voiced his objections to Baku's rhetoric concerning "reintegration," viewing it as an attempt at ethnic cleansing. He further pointed to increasing signs of imminent military escalation in the region.
With both sides hard-pressed to reach a lasting accord, continued geopolitical tensions, external actor involvement, and minimal progress in resolving humanitarian concerns cloud the future of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan's insistence on bilateral talks for the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh contradicts Karabakh's demand for an internationally recognized forum, causing political deadlock and escalating the risk of war-and-conflicts. Political analysts worry that this impasse could lead to general-news headlines of a new war breaking out in the region.
In response to Azerbaijan's calls for talks, Karabakh officials assert that any negotiations should occur within a globally recognized framework, aiming to maintain the political situation as it currently stands in the region. This disagreement poses a significant hurdle towards resolving the long-standing political conflict between the two parties.
