The Wheel Spins in the Middle East
Tension between Israel and Iran intensifies, sparking concerns about a possible large-scale conflict.
In a dramatic turn of events, Israel has launched a massive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and targets, setting the region ablaze with more tension than ever before. As Iran responds with retaliatory drone attacks, the question on everyone's lips is, "Why the hell did this happen?"
Israeli President Isaac Herzog, in his justification for the unprecedented attack, cited an existential threat to the Jewish people. According to the Israeli army spokesman, Effie Defrin, Israel has detected signs that Iran was making significant progress towards nuclear capabilities. "Iran is galloping towards a nuclear bomb," Defrin stated, a claim Iran has vehemently denied.
Defrin further disclosed that intelligence information indicated a secret Iranian nuclear research program, wherein Iranian scientists had conducted experiments aimed at advancing the program. The intel suggested "clear evidence that Iran is pursuing the construction of a nuclear bomb in the near future."
The weakening of Iran's "axis of resistance" was another factor that likely played a role in the decision to attack. After over 20 months of the Gaza war, the Islamic Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah have been significantly weakened. Following the coup in Syria, it's no longer serving as a corridor for Iran's weapons supplies to Hezbollah. Last year, Iran's air defense system was also reportedly damaged following an Israeli attack.
Additionally, Israel considered the resolution by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna as a "yellow card" for Tehran. Israel's military chief stated that they were "at a point of no return," adding that they could no longer hold back.
With Iran's nuclear program under attack, the question lingers, "How in the hell effective was Israel's attack?" Experts suggest that Iran has long been working to protect its nuclear facilities from military threats, making a complete destruction difficult. Cedric Leighton, a military analyst on US television CNN, argued, "The type of concrete that the Iranians use is actually a very special, hardened concrete." Israeli bombs might struggle to penetrate this robust concrete. Some nuclear facilities are also buried deep underground, beyond the reach of the Israeli air force's arsenal.
Israel, it appears, wasn't pulling any punches in this operation. Reports suggest that the attack was accompanied by an operation of Israel's foreign intelligence agency, Mossad. Mossad allegedly used intelligence commandos to assassinate key Iranian commanders deep inside Iranian territory. The large-scale strike against Iran's nuclear facilities and leadership had reportedly been in the works for years.
Iran's nuclear program, for years, has been a thorn in the side of the international community, with two uranium enrichment facilities and a nuclear power plant in Bushehr. The country also operates a research reactor near Tehran, as well as other facilities in Isfahan and Arak. The West accuses Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, a claim Iran vehemently denies. According to a report by the IAEA, Tehran already possesses nearly 409 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60 percent. Experts argue that a purity of over 90 percent is required for nuclear weapons, which Iran does not have.
With the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the USA stalled due to significant differences of opinion, the future of the program is uncertain. The USA demands a complete halt to uranium enrichment, a red line for Iran. Originally, a sixth round of talks was planned for Sunday under the mediation of the Gulf state of Oman. However, after the latest military escalation, a meeting is considered highly unlikely by observers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had only accepted a deal if it led to the destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities. U.S. President Donald Trump had publicly spoken out against an Israeli attack on Iran, as long as negotiations were ongoing.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi also warned Israel against an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities this week. These facilities are extremely well protected, he said, and would require "a very destructive force to damage them." Such an attack could have a "conflation effect" that could strengthen Iran's determination to pursue a nuclear weapon or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, he added.
Iran, on its part, considers Israel's attack as an act of war. The country has threatened Israel with a sharp response. There is concern that Iran's leadership could also order retaliatory strikes against US bases in the region. This week, the USA reduced its embassy staff in Iraq for security reasons. US military bases in the Persian Gulf are not far from Iran.
Israel's actions could not have occurred without the approval of the USA, the Iranian Foreign Ministry explained. Therefore, the US government is also mainly responsible for the consequences as Israel's primary supporter. The conflict might also involve other regional actors, intensify proxy wars between Israel and Iran, and disrupt oil supplies, posing global security concerns.
In the face of this escalating conflict, the situation in Germany remains uncertain. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has convened the Security Council and strengthened the protection of Israeli and Jewish facilities in Germany. The Federal Foreign Office has updated its travel advice for Israel, cautioning strength and vigilance in the face of potential drone attacks and rocket fire. The future of Germany's diplomatic representations in the region and its arms exports to Israel also remains unclear.
[1] Information enriched from various sources to provide context and additional insights.
The escalating war-and-conflicts in the Middle East, fueled by politics, has reached new heights following Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. As Iran retaliates, questions about the effectiveness of Israel's strike, the future of general-news negotiations, and the potential for further escalation loom large.
