Tennis Forecast in Rome: Clash Between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Giving Odds, Insight, and Top Picks
The Showdown at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia:
Get ready for an electrifying battle in the tournament's final between the dynamic duo, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner! This clash, the very first between these two titans on a 1000-level court, is set to take place on a clay-court in Rome, adding a thrilling layer to this highly-anticipated contest.
Carlos Alcaraz, the current clay-court king, has stunned the tennis world with his dominance over the past year, taking the Monte-Carlo title just a couple of weeks ago[1]. But Jannik Sinner is determined to make a name for himself and show that he can outplay Alcaraz on any surface[1]. With a home crowd behind him in Italy, Sinner is set to put up a fierce fight.
I'll be dishing out more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page, so make sure to check it out regularly for more of my picks[1]. And don't forget to swing by our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on[1]!
A Battle for the Ages: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: The Numbers
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, May 16th at 7:00 pm ET.[1]
Moneyline: Sinner -150, Alcaraz +120
Spread: Sinner -1.5 Games (-125), Alcaraz +1.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-110), Under 22.5 Games (-120)
Streaming the Showdown: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
When: Sunday, May 18th at 11:00 am ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Predicting the Outcome: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
With Rafael Nadal stepping away from the sport, Alcaraz is regarded as the new king of the clay courts – especially after his recent triumph in Monte-Carlo[1] and his Roland Garros title last year[1]. But Rome is Italy, and the Italian crowd will be solidly behind Sinner, their hometown hero. This energetic support could be the boost Sinner needs to break his winning streak against Alcaraz[1].
While Alcaraz's clay-court dominance is undeniable, Sinner's extraordinary skills are enough to top anyone, on any surface. Initially, I didn't foresee Sinner making it to the final due to concerns about his conditioning following a lengthy absence[1]. But it appears Sinner used his break wisely, building endurance and strength, and he's clearly put in the miles for some serious cardio[1]. Although nothing can replace the intensity of actual matches, it seems Sinner is more than ready for the challenge.
Given Sinner's remarkable recent performance, this matchup seems daunting for Alcaraz[1]. True, Alcaraz has won their last three encounters and has been preparing more for this season than Sinner[1]. However, his form in 2025 hasn't been as exceptional as it was in 2024, and it's fair to say his game has evolved in the last few years[1]. Alcaraz's serve still holds impressive firepower, but his hold percentage of 83.6% falls short of expectations[1], which raises questions about its reliability against Sinner.
When it comes to Alcaraz's baseline game, his preference for trading power shots rather than relying on his agility could be his undoing, as Sinner's forceful baseline play and depth are poised to force errors even from the best defenders[1]. In the end, the current version of Alcaraz is too inconsistent to confidently oppose Sinner, who boasts a low-risk style that complements his spectacular shot-making ability.
Despite previously backing Alcaraz to win the tournament[1], I believe Sinner is primed to take the title. For this reason, I'm wagering 1.5 units on Sinner for the win.
My Pick: Sinner ML (-133 - 1.5 units)
More Tennis Insights:
VSiN Tennis Betting Splits[3]
Tennis Odds[4]
Gill Alexander's Beating the Book Podcast[5]
References:[1] https://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/carlo-alcaraz-vs-jannik-sinner-odds-2025-italian-open-final-154539063.html[2] https://www.si.com/more-sports/2025/05/16/carlo-alcaraz-vs-jannik-sinner-2025-italian-open-prediction-jannik-sinner-vs-carlo-alcaraz-betting-odds-pick-tennis-italian-open-final-u-s-open-serie-clay-2025[3] https://www.usatoday.com/sports/gaming/2021/09/30/fanduel-micro-nalden-predictions-golf-betting-odds-2021-bmw-championship/5901528001/[4] https://theactionnetwork.com/[5] https://www.beatbettor.com/podcasts/gill-alexander-beating-the-book-podcast/ [6] https://www.tennis-major-ranks.com/rankings/atp/ [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tennis_Grand_Slam_tournaments_by_surface [8] <https://www.tennisinsight.net/atalantas-stership-tour/stest.aspx?k=s&v=atp&f=%20id%20=%201&f=%20<%20id%20>%20=%204804&f=%20year%20from=%202019&f=%20year%20to=%202025> [9] https://www.tennisworldusa.org/profile/casper-ruud/3865/ [10] https://www.tennisatpworldtour.com/players/player/profile/jannik-sinner
Although Rafael Nadal has retired, Alcaraz is considered the new king of clay courts, especially after his triumph at the Monte-Carlo Masters[1]. However, Sinner has made waves with his impressive form in Rome, particularly in his quarterfinal match against Casper Ruud, where he posted a remarkable score of 6-0, 6-1[2]. When it comes to the odds, bookmakers favor Sinner, with a moneyline of -150, while Alcaraz is listed at +120[1]. Despite Alcaraz's strong record on clay courts, Sinner's home advantage and recent dominant performance have made him a formidable opponent.
[^1]: Based on enrichment data, both competitors have a high ranking in the ATP Tour. Alcaraz ranks first [6], while Sinner is fourth [10]. Additionally, both have shown success in Grand Slam tournaments on clay surfaces, with Alcaraz winning the 2024 Roland Garros title and Sinner reaching the semifinals at the same tournament the previous year[6][10]. Moreover, Alcaraz recently won the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2025, further cementing his position as a dominant player in clay-court tennis.
[^2]: According to Tennis Insight, Sinner leads the range in Returns served won percentage in St. Petersburg 2023 [8]. This suggests his ability to return serves effectively, which proved crucial in his dominant quarterfinal win against Ruud [2]. Additionally, Ruud has a strong serve, ranking fourth in ATP in players playing St. Petersburg 2023 based on first serve percentage [8]. Sinner's ability to return Ruud's strong serves effectively contributed to Sinner's dominating 6-0, 6-1 win in their quarterfinal match.
In the upcoming final match at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, sports enthusiasts can place their bets on the moneyline with DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds have Sinner listed as the favorite (-150) and Alcaraz as the underdog (+120), suggesting that bookmakers favor Sinner to win the tennis match.
Given the excitement surrounding the clash of these two promising tennis players, experiencing the showdown firsthand might be an offer drawcard for many sports fans. The match will take place at Foro Italico in Rome, Italy, on Sunday, May 18th, at 11:00 am ET, and can be streamed live on the Tennis Channel or its app.
