Tennis Betting Tips: Top Picks and Winners for Saturday, 26th April at Madrid Open
🎾 Madrid Open Tips for April 26th
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Here are my Madrid Open recommendations for April 26th:
👩🎾 Belinda Bencic vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia / Tallon Griekspoor vs. Jack Draper
Haddad Maia's 2025 season has been a struggle, going 3-12 and losing form. Her serve hold percentage dropped catastrophically from 69.5% in 2024 to 58.1% in 2025. Her break percentage also took a dive, falling from 34.8% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2025. Haddad Maia simply isn't holding consistently or putting pressure on opponents as a returner. Plus, her rally tolerance seems off the mark compared to her days as a top-25 WTA player. We've got confidence that Bencic will come away victorious here. Since the start of 2025, Bencic has a record of 18-7.
To get Bencic's odds down, I'm playing it with an alternate Over in a clash between Griekspoor and Draper. This looks set to be a long one, with both players capable of racking up holds. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a tiebreaker, or even a 7-5 set. That would make little difference to the other set, allowing the Over to be hit.
👦 Alexandre Muller vs. Ugo Humbert
I'm not jumping into an Humbert fade just yet, but I do think it's worth considering. Humbert is dealing with a broken hand, hampering his backhand wing play. While he's still a solid server with a powerful forehand, he's extremely vulnerable on one side of the court. Muller, an astute player, is sure to test the backhand as often as possible. Muller has done well on clay in 2025, and I trust him to handle a compromised opponent.
👦 Nicolas Jarry vs. Grigor Dimitrov
If Jarry was playing consistently like he did in the previous season, I would've backed him without hesitation here. However, current form makes me a bit more cautious. Still, I'm willing to take a gamble in this match, as conditions are ideal for Jarry on the clay in Madrid.
Jarry thrives on altitude clay, thanks to his massive serve, huge forehand, and aggressive playstyle. Dimitrov, on the other hand, hasn't exactly set the court on fire in 2025. He's been incredibly unpredictable, and I believe he'll be susceptible in this match. Playing on the clay with just one-handed backhand is no easy task in Madrid.
👦 Joao Fonseca vs. Tommy Paul
It's hard to believe that Fonseca is favored over Paul in a 1000-level event, but he's in a strong position. After a post-Miami layoff, Fonseca played a fantastic match against Elmer Moller, demonstrating minimal rust. His successful upbringing on clay and solid game for altitude surfaces make him well-suited for this match. Paul, while an elite baseline defender, struggles on clay and hasn't shown much success in the past. Additionally, Paul hasn't played since losing in the Houston final, and he's fighting rust and a difficult matchup.
👩💼 ** Tip Summary**
PARLAY: Bencic ML & Griekspoor-Draper Over 20.5 Games (-142 - 1.5 units)
Muller ML (+110)
Nicolas Jarry +1.5 Sets (-154 - 1.5 units) & Jarry ML (+170 - 0.5 units)
Joao Fonseca ML (-140 - 1.5 units)
Psst! Refresh the Pro Picks page throughout the day for additional plays! They count toward my record and have been key to my success in the past. Don't miss out on my 250-level and Challenger picks – they'll only be available on the Pro Picks page!
🔥 Related Content
VSiN Tennis Betting Splits
Tennis Odds
Gill Alexander's Beating The Book Podcast
🎾 Sources
- VSiN's Tennis Coverage. (2025). [Accessed 2025-04-26]. Available here: https://www.vsin.com/sports/tennis/
- Gill Alexander. (2025). [Accessed 2025-04-26]. Available here: https://www.vsin.com/who-we-are/team/
- Expert Predictions for Madrid Open. (2025). [Accessed 2025-04-26]. Available here: https://sportytrader.com/tennis/
- SportyTrader's Madrid Masters Picks. (2025). [Accessed 2025-04-26]. Available here: https://sportytrader.com/tennis/madrid-masters/
For those seeking expert tennis predictions, VSiN offers insights from top authorities, available until August 1st for just $59. Don't miss out on their Madrid Open tips!
Bencic's odds may seem low, but given her current form and Haddad Maia's struggles, Bencic's moneyline is a sure bet in their match.
In the clash between Griekspoor and Draper, taking an alternate Over 20.5 games could yield positive returns, given the potential for a long, rally-filled match.
The odds for Muller against Humbert, despite Humbert's powerful forehand, may be worth considering, given Humbert's vulnerability on one side of the court and Muller's strong play on clay.
For sports enthusiasts, the Madrid Open calendar is filled with back-to-back 1000-level events, leading up to the majors, making it the perfect time to join VSiN Pro.
