Temp respite precedes another hot spell
Southern Europe is gearing up for a prolonged period of intense heatwaves, according to the long-term weather forecast for July 2025. The central and southern regions, including Italy, the Balkan peninsula, eastern Croatia, and Serbia, are expected to experience temperatures regularly reaching or exceeding the mid to upper 30s Celsius, with occasional spikes nearing 40°C [1][2].
A brief respite with cooler air masses may occur early in the second week, but a return of a strong subtropical ridge and associated heat is predicted around mid-month, reinforcing warm conditions over Southern Europe [2].
The heatwave is expected to be exacerbated by the exceptionally warm water temperatures in the western Mediterranean. Currently, these waters are significantly above average, often reaching 28 degrees Celsius, amplifying the heat over adjacent land areas [3]. While detailed numerical forecasts for water temperature through the rest of July are not specified, the combination of persistent heatwaves and drought conditions suggests that the western Mediterranean waters will likely remain warm and above average throughout the month.
The ongoing heatwave aligns with the ongoing drought and fire risk conditions highlighted by meteorological agencies and the World Meteorological Organization. Temperatures are expected to rise further on Friday, with the southwest approaching 30 degrees [4]. Elsewhere, Wednesday will see rising temperatures, while a drop to very fresh 6 to 12 degrees is forecast for the western foothills on Tuesday night [5].
Thursday will be friendly and sunny, with the southeast seeing some sunshine, albeit not entirely without showers. Friday will be sunny in the south, with more clouds in the north. Short showers can occur in the east, but the friendly impression will prevail [4].
The new week starts with mixed weather in Germany. High pressure from the Azores moves towards Central and Northern Europe on Wednesday, shifting mixed weather to Eastern Europe and influencing the east of Germany. The weekend will be in top summer form, with temperatures reaching widespread hot highs of 27 to 34 degrees [6]. There will be frequent showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, with only the east being somewhat cloudier and changeable during the weekend [7].
The southwest could see summery warmth up to 27 degrees on Thursday, while the wind will blow noticeably from the north and east on Thursday, with widespread warm temperatures of 20 to 25 degrees [8]. July has started with a significant heatwave, deviating over 4 degrees from the 1961-1990 climate average [9]. The summer will pick up speed later in the week.
The community might need to pay attention to a new employment policy due to the prolonged scorching heatwaves predicted in the employment policy document for July 2025. The abnormal heatwaves and drought conditions could necessitate additional provisions for working under extreme weather conditions.
Despite the ongoing heatwave and warm water temperatures in the western Mediterranean, weather-forecasting agencies are predicting occasional cooler air masses towards the second week of July, offering a brief reprieve from the intense heat.
