Tehran Mulls Over Retaliatory Actions
In the wee hours of Sunday morning, a sudden silence fell over Iran's digital landscape. The international internet connection was dropped, leaving the everyday people of Iran in the dark. Instead of dialing into Iran, phone calls were met with cryptic messages: "Life throws surprises, some are delightful, others challenging." The culprit? It's murky at best.
The Iranian populace is currently relying on heavily censored domestic media for updates. These outlets are downplaying the impact of the recent US military attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. But contrary to these reports, President Donald Trump declared on live TV that these "key facilities for uranium enrichment" were "completely and totally destroyed." The domestic media claims that only access tunnels and above-ground facilities were targeted, suggesting they can be rebuilt quickly.
Diplomacy Under Fire
The rhetoric is heated: Trump demanded "unconditional surrender" on the social network Truth Social. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with a statement, asserting Iran's right to respond forcefully to the US aggression and crimes. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a more diplomatic approach. "Last week, we were in negotiations with the US. Then Israel decided to sabotage diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3 ministers of Europe, only for the US to shoot down the diplomacy again," he wrote on X, the new Twitter.
On Sunday, Iran retaliated with 40 rockets fired into Israel; approximately 90 injuries were recorded by emergency services. As a counter-offensive, the Israeli air force attacked targets within the Islamic Republic, claiming that only military facilities in the western region were affected.
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With a plethora of targets within their reach, the hawks in Iran aren't satisfied with mere diplomacy. The Revolutionary Guards have numerous military bases and US facilities in their sights in the region. However, they could make the biggest impact without firing a single shot. Shortly after the US announcements, diplomats expressed concerns that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz or leverage its influence over the Houthis in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab strait for shipping.[1][3][4][5]
A Dangerous Strait
The strategic 38-kilometer-wide Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Approximately 20% of the world's oil consumption is transported through this waterway, lying within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Another critical 27-kilometer-wide waterway is the Bab al-Mandab strait between Yemen and Djibouti, linking the Far East and the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with sanctions against Russia, could lead to global oil shortages, significantly impacting Saudi Arabia's economy, heavily dependent on oil exports[1][2][3][4][5].
While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, is preparing for his succession, reports suggest he has instructed the 88-member Assembly of Experts to choose his successor from a pre-selected list of three candidates. Khamenei's fate seems to be a concern for Israel, with its Defense Minister, Israel Katz, stating boldly that Khamenei "should not continue to exist" following a rocket attack on a hospital in Be'er Sheva, southern Israel.[1][2][3]
- The escalating war-and-conflicts between Iran and the US, highlighted by recent US military attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have led to heated politics and general news discussions.
- Diplomats are expressing concerns over potential strategies such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz or leveraging influence over the Houthis in Yemen, which could lead to oil shortages and global economic impacts.
