Tariffs imposed by Trump could potentially fuel Asia's economic ascent
In the dynamic world of international trade, the potential accession of India to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) could mark a significant turning point for Asia and beyond.
Economically, India's inclusion in RCEP could accelerate the momentum of the Asian economy, currently valued at around $40 trillion. This could enhance regional economic integration and trade flows, potentially benefiting Indian businesses and consumers through greater market access and supply-chain connectivity. However, it would also expose India to competition from larger economies like China, and could complicate domestic development priorities.
Geopolitically, India's joining RCEP would likely lead to a shift in regional influence. China, being a dominant member of RCEP, would strengthen its economic and geopolitical clout in Asia. This could diminish U.S. sway in the Indo-Pacific region, undermining the current U.S.-led trade and strategic frameworks. Given the recent U.S. tariff impositions on Indian exports, India may see RCEP as a strategic counterbalance to U.S. protectionism.
At the same time, India's move toward RCEP could signal a recalibration of its foreign relations away from the U.S. and toward deeper engagement with East and Southeast Asian countries within a multilateral trade setting, thereby increasing China's influence indirectly. This could complicate India's efforts to balance its strategic autonomy with its traditional partnerships such as the Quad with the U.S., Japan, and Australia.
In summary, India's accession to RCEP under strained U.S. relations would likely:
- Boost economic integration and trade growth in Asia, benefiting India but also exposing it to competitive pressures.
- Enhance China's regional economic and geopolitical influence at the expense of U.S. dominance.
- Reflect a strategic pivot in India's foreign policy toward East Asia and away from reliance on the U.S.
- Require India to manage careful domestic policy trade-offs relating to development goals and trade openness.
This multidimensional shift would have wide-ranging consequences for global trade architecture and geopolitical alignments in the Indo-Pacific region. Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies at King's College London, suggests that China's growing economic might and political stability present a challenging proposition for the West. Washington's tariffs on Indian goods have soured diplomatic relations, potentially leading to a stronger, more integrated Asia, a diminished U.S. role in the region, and the solidification of a multi-polar global order with Asia at its center.
The accession of India to RCEP could potentially influence politics and general news, as it might lead to a shift in regional influence towards China, causing a decrease in U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific region (politics). Additionally, India's move towards RCEP could be seen as a strategic response to U.S. protectionism and a pivot towards deeper engagement with East and Southeast Asian countries, which may increase China's influence indirectly (general-news).
