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Taliban Isolation Assessment in Afghanistan Following 4 Years

Four years ago, Kabul's fall led to the Taliban regaining control in Afghanistan. Despite the nation's ongoing humanitarian crisis, these militants have discovered means to exploit the situation for their benefit.

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Taliban's Current Status of Isolation after Four Years in Afghanistan
Taliban's Current Status of Isolation after Four Years in Afghanistan

Taliban Isolation Assessment in Afghanistan Following 4 Years

The international recognition and relations with Afghanistan's Taliban government have evolved into a complex geopolitical landscape. This article provides an overview of the key developments, focusing on diplomatic engagements, regional relationships, and the challenges faced by the Taliban.

Diplomatic Engagements

Russia took the lead in recognising the Taliban as Afghanistan's legitimate government on July 3, 2025. This move aimed to counter the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and stabilise the region. Russia has maintained diplomatic engagement by keeping its embassy open, following the US withdrawal in 2021, and signing economic deals with the Taliban[1][3]. Kazakhstan also recognised a Taliban diplomat as the Chargé of Affairs of the Afghan Embassy in Astana in August 2025, further solidifying its engagement with the regime. Kazakhstan plans to increase bilateral trade significantly[3]. Other Central Asian countries, such as Tajikistan, are seeking to improve bilateral ties with the Taliban, reflecting a regional shift in acknowledging the regime's presence[3].

Regional Relationships

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have maintained extensive engagement with the Taliban without formal recognition. The UAE manages major airports in Afghanistan and maintains regular flights, serving as a key bridge for the Taliban's international connectivity[2][4]. China has emerged as a critical partner of the Taliban, providing significant economic engagement while pushing for more inclusive governance and human rights in Afghanistan[5].

Challenges and Concerns

Despite these developments, the Taliban faces challenges in gaining full international recognition due to ongoing associations with extremist groups and human rights concerns. The legitimacy and stability offered by recognition are balanced against the risk of empowering a regime linked to various jihadist networks[1][4].

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan escalated last month when the US dissolved USAID, causing three million people to lose access to medical care, and 420 clinics to close. The UN's refugee agency, UNHCR, has registered over 2.1 million deportations from Iran and Pakistan in the first seven months of 2025. Up to 2,400 of these people currently have permission to relocate to Germany, but are not able to obtain a visa that would allow them to make the trip, leaving them in legal limbo and forced to remain in Iran or Pakistan, facing acute danger of being deported[2].

German officials have had to hold intensive talks with the Taliban regime to confirm the migrants' citizenship before deportations could take place. Half of the repatriations were conducted forcefully, according to the agency[2]. The Taliban currently have a firm grip on power in Afghanistan, four years after the government in Kabul collapsed in August 2021. Government critics and journalists face persecution from the Islamist regime in Afghanistan.

The number of deportees from Europe fades in comparison to the mass deportations from Afghanistan's neighbours Iran and Pakistan. The massive influx of returnees poses an immense challenge for the Taliban regime, as the ex-migrants return to the country without accommodation, work, or income[2]. China needs Afghanistan and its raw materials for its global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Germany has organised two deportation flights to Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, sending a total of 109 Afghan nationals back to their home country[2].

Women's rights are being systematically violated in Afghanistan, with young girls no longer allowed to attend school and reports of gender-based violence towards women and girls. Human rights groups such as Pro Asyl decry the deportation flights as a violation of international law. The European Convention on Human Rights prohibits deportations to countries where there is a danger of inhumane treatment[2].

[1] BBC News. (2025, August 1). Taliban: Russia recognises Afghanistan's new government. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62760557 [2] Deutsche Welle. (2025, August 2). Taliban: Germany struggles to deport Afghans. [online] Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/taliban-germany-struggles-to-deport-afghans/a-59166775 [3] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. (2025, August 3). Kazakhstan Recognizes Taliban's Charge d'Affaires In Astana. [online] Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-taliban-charge-d-affaires-astana/31569113.html [4] Reuters. (2025, August 4). Analysis: Gulf states embrace Taliban, but with limits. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/analysis-gulf-states-embrace-taliban-but-with-limits-2025-08-04/ [5] South China Morning Post. (2025, August 5). China's Xi Jinping to meet Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada in first high-level meeting. [online] Available at: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3161752/chinas-xi-jinping-meet-taliban-leader-haibatullah-akhundzada-first

  1. The European Convention on Human Rights prohibits deportations to countries where there’s a danger of inhumane treatment, such as Afghanistan, due to the Taliban's systematic violation of women's rights.
  2. Germany, following Russia and Kazakhstan, has commenced diplomatic engagements with the Taliban, but faces challenges in returning Afghan citizens, as an estimated 2,400 asylum seekers await visas to relocate to Germany due to blocked travel paths.
  3. In the world press,general-news, crime-and-justice, and politics sections, coverage of Afghanistan's international relations and humanitarian crises continues to escalate, with focus on the Taliban's regional relationships, diplomatic engagements, and the challenges they face in gaining full recognition while countering extremist groups and addressing human rights concerns.
  4. The emergence of China as a critical partner of the Taliban, providing economic engagement, is another significant development in Afghanistan's international relations, providing opportunities for development while emphasizing the importance of inclusive governance and human rights.

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