Tactics and Execution of Surrogate Conflicts in Strategic Struggles

Tactics and Execution of Surrogate Conflicts in Strategic Struggles

In the realm of international politics, proxy warfare has emerged as a significant tool for major powers to pursue their geopolitical goals indirectly. This approach, which allows states to use local allied actors, militias, or client states without engaging in direct military conflict, is a topic of intense discussion, especially in the context of strategic and great power competition.

The role of proxy warfare in strategic competition is a subject that has been explored in depth on the Social Science of War podcast, produced by the Department of Social Sciences at West Point. In Episode 6, Season 1, the podcast delves into this topic, highlighting its cost-effectiveness, plausible deniability, risk mitigation, and influence projection without the political and military costs of full-scale war.

Examples of proxy warfare can be seen in various contemporary conflicts, such as the Middle East regional conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, and the Ukraine war, where Iran, Saudi Arabia, NATO, and Russia have used proxies to pursue strategic aims with minimal direct involvement while managing escalation risks.

Given the growing importance of proxy warfare, it is crucial for the U.S. Army and government to prepare for this form of conflict. Here are six key strategies:

1. Develop Formal Proxy Warfare Strategies: The U.S. and its allies need to formalize proxy strategies by creating comprehensive defense plans, correcting resource and production gaps, and aligning policies to sustain long-term proxy support.
2. Enhance Support Capabilities for Proxy Actors: Providing proxies with intelligence, military training, weapons, financial aid, and diplomatic backing is essential. This should be integrated with careful management of the hierarchy to maintain influence over proxies and ensure their reliance on U.S./allied support for effectiveness and strategic alignment.
3. Risk Management and Escalation Control: Understanding and weaponizing risk perceptions is crucial in proxy warfare. The U.S. should explore models that transfer most risk to adversaries while managing escalation carefully.
4. Intelligence and Counter-Proxy Capabilities: Monitoring adversaries’ proxies and developing means to counter them—including cyber, informational, and unconventional measures—is necessary to mitigate threats in proxy conflicts.
5. Adapt Training and Doctrine: The Army and broader Department of Defense should adapt training, doctrines, and operational concepts to recognize proxy warfare dynamics, combining conventional and irregular warfare skills to support proxies effectively while maintaining strategic influence.
6. Diplomatic and Economic Instruments: Proxy warfare operates within a broader geopolitical contest that includes economic sanctions, alliances, and diplomatic pressure. The U.S. government should synchronize these instruments to complement military proxy efforts, shaping local environments favorable to U.S. strategic objectives.

Notable figures in the study of proxy warfare include Lieutenant General Ken Tovo, who commanded the US Army Special Operations Command, and Dr. Jahanbani, an assistant professor in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point and a researcher at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Dr. Rauta, a lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Reading and a fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, is also widely published on proxy warfare.

In conclusion, understanding and preparing for proxy warfare is essential for the U.S. and its allies in the context of strategic competition. By integrating military, diplomatic, economic, and intelligence approaches, we can formalize proxy relationships, manage risks, and sustain proxies’ capabilities and autonomy within aligned strategic goals.

Image credit: Emmanuel Rios, Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Arabian Peninsula

For questions about this episode or the Science of War podcast in general, you can contact Kyle Atwell, the podcast's creator and host.

Dr. Rauta is the editor of the forthcoming Routledge Handbook of Proxy Wars.

The conversation explores proxy warfare through the lens of principal-agent theory.

Lieutenant General Ken Tovo retired as a career Special Forces Officer with nearly forty years of experience in the Army. He graduated and commissioned as an infantry officer from the United States Military Academy at West Point in 1983.

Dr. Nakissa Jahanbani's research focuses on state-proxy relationships, specifically Iran's network of proxies.

1. Proxy warfare, a significant tool in international politics for achieving geopolitical goals indirectly, is a key subject of discussion in strategic and great power competition, as seen in the Social Science of War podcast.
2. The podcast's Episode 6, Season 1 discusses the cost-effectiveness, plausible deniability, and strategic influence of proxy warfare, while highlighting its risks.
3. Examples of proxy warfare can be observed in contemporary conflicts, such as the Middle East regional conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the Ukraine war, with Iran, Saudi Arabia, NATO, and Russia using proxies to pursue strategic aims.
4. Given its growing importance, it is crucial for U.S. national security and military strategies to prepare for proxy warfare, employing tactics such as formal strategy creation, proxy actor support, risk management, intelligence gathering, adaptive training, and coordinated diplomatic and economic instruments.

Read also: