Tactical Mishaps and Overconfidence Revealed in Current Strategic Circumstances
Going Undercover: The Art of Strategic Surprise
Hey there! Ever felt like you saw a punch coming a mile away, but your enemy pulled off a surprise move that left you reeling? Welcome to the world of strategic surprise – where the art of deception, misperception, and anticipation rule the day.
In today's dynamic global landscape, strategic surprises are inescapable. Take, for example, the Ukrainian resilience that left both Russia and the U.S. scrambling in 2022, or the Hamas attacks that took Israel by surprise in October 2023. Just recently, Iran got a taste of its own medicine with Israel's preventive strikes in June 2025, possibly due to a misassessment of U.S. resolve to strike the Iranian nuclear program.
Seeing Isn't Believing
Strategic surprise is about more than just intelligence agencies dropping the ball. It's about the misperception of one's own decisions' impact on the environment and the adversary's limitations. Surprises can create emotional and sometimes traumatic effects, granting a substantial advantage to the proactive side (the one successfully surprising an adversary).
The 9/11 attacks of 2001 weren't just a failure of American intelligence; they also reflected a flawed understanding of al-Qaeda's strategy and an inability to imagine the terrorist threat to the homeland. In 2016, when the Russian intervention in the U.S. presidential elections went under the radar of U.S. intelligence, this was also considered a failure of the imagination. The United States misjudged Russia's strategy and its operational concept of using cyber operations and social media to attack the core of U.S. democracy.
Misperception of Partners and Adversaries Alike
Misperceptions are not just reserved for adversaries. The collapse of the Iraqi and Afghan security forces, and the resilience of Ukraine in the face of the Russian attack in 2022, are examples of misperceptions of partners and allies. Even Israel, known for its sharp intelligence prowess, was surprised by the Hamas attacks in October 2023, an intelligence failure that was also a defense and policy failure, born from a deception by Hamas. This resembles Israel's strategic surprise in the Yom Kippur War of 1973, reflecting Israeli misperceptions of adversaries' intentions and capabilities, as well as flawed self-perceptions.
Fundamental Surprises and Misperceptions
One major culprit for so many fundamental surprises and misperceptions? Overreliance on technology and a little something called technophilia—a term you might not encounter in your everyday life, but trust us, it's a thing. This overreliance may create the illusion that more data equals more knowledge, and that successful operations reflect strategic insights. Sadly, this is just an illusion of certainty.
Other causes of surprise and misperceptions stem from arrogance, overconfidence, and hubris, both among Western and non-Western countries. These actors sometimes overestimate their influence over adversaries and their own superiority, leading to flawed self-perceptions and often failures of imagination.
Deception: The Great Equalizer
Deception has remained relevant despite the changing nature of warfare. Successful strategic deception, like the German one against the Soviet Union in 1941 or the Egyptian one against Israel in 1973, reinforces existing perceptions that often prove to be flawed analytical paradigms and misperceptions. This is probably what happened to Israel in October 2023 vis-à-vis Hamas, and what happened to Iran in June 2025 vis-à-vis Israel.
Lessons for Nation-Builders
For Western national security leaders, a few key lessons emerge from this analysis:
- Avoiding arrogance and overconfidence is crucial for escaping the risks of deception. Success should not lead to hubris, as it might make leaders vulnerable to deception.
- Empower a contrarian culture and a skeptical approach to avoid "failures of imagination."
- Study your adversaries' strategic culture to increase the probability of successful deception and surprise them.
Stay curious, stay skeptical, and keep your eyes (and mind) wide open. In an unpredictable world, it's the only way to stay one step ahead. 🕵️♂️
Dr. Itai Shapira, IDF colonel (reserve), has spent over twenty-five years in Israel's Defense Intelligence, serving as an intelligence analyst and manager. He has published books and articles on Israeli intelligence culture and strategic intelligence practices in the commercial sector.
*The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
- Strategic surprise, in today's global landscape, is not limited to intelligence failure, but can also result from misperception of one's decisions' impact and the adversary's limitations.
- For instance, the 9/11 attacks in 2001 were not only a failure of American intelligence but also reflected a flawed understanding of al-Qaeda's strategy and an inability to imagine the terrorist threat to the homeland.
- Misperceptions are not limited to adversaries; they can also occur among partners and allies, such as the collapse of the Iraqi and Afghan security forces, or Israel's surprise by Hamas attacks in October 2023.
- Overreliance on technology and technophilia, the belief that more data leads to more knowledge, can create illusions of certainty and contribute to fundamental surprises and misperceptions.
- To stay one step ahead in an unpredictable world, it's crucial for nation-builders to avoid arrogance, embrace a contrarian culture, and study their adversaries' strategic culture to increase the probability of successful deception and surprise.
