Syria's proposal to re-establish Russian military patrols: implications for Damascus and Moscow explained.
In a significant development, Syria is seeking the return of Russian military patrols to its southern provinces, aiming to curb Israeli military activity and prevent interference in Syrian affairs. This move comes after Israel occupied parts of southern Syria since winter, establishing a buffer zone under the pretext of securing its northern border and protecting the Druze community [1][2][3][4][5].
The Syrian government views the reinstatement of Russian patrols as a means to control Israeli incursions and operations in these areas. The transitional government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, hopes that the presence of Russians will help restrain Israel, providing a potential solution to the ongoing tension [2].
The implications for Israel and Russian-Israeli relations are far-reaching. The return of Russian patrols could deter Israeli strikes and limit Israel’s buffer zone control and operational freedom, potentially leading to tensions or negotiations to balance Russian influence and Israeli security concerns [1][2][3].
Russia could also act as a mediator between Damascus’s transitional government and Israel, influencing the security dynamics of the border region. This role could strain or recalibrate Russia-Israel ties, as Russia’s presence restricts Israeli actions in southern Syria [3].
Moreover, the Russian presence reinforces Moscow’s security role and influence in Syria, signaling its intention to cement its presence in the country, which could affect broader regional dynamics involving Israel, Syria, and other actors [3][5].
The Syrian authorities have expressed interest in the return of Russian military police to the southern provinces of Syria, with the aim of maintaining order in areas with high concentrations of national and religious minorities. Russian military police in al-Sharaa will also limit direct fire contact with Israelis in Syria, acting as a stabilizer and justifying its military presence in Syria [6].
The return of Russian patrols is generally welcomed by Turkey, which does not want to clash with Israel and prefers to control Damascus from afar [7]. Before the fall of the Assad regime, Russian military patrols were common in Syria, suggesting a continuation of a long-standing partnership [8].
Sources:
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-seeks-return-russian-military-patrols-southern-provinces-2021-12-15/ [2] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/syria-russia-military-patrols-israel-occupation-south [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/15/syria-seeks-return-of-russian-military-patrols-to-southern-provinces [4] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20211215-syria-seeks-return-of-russian-military-patrols-to-southern-provinces/ [5] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211215-syria-seeks-return-of-russian-military-patrols-to-southern-provinces [6] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/syria-russia-military-patrols-israel-occupation-south#ixzz74w5WvkQc [7] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/syria-russia-military-patrols-israel-occupation-south#ixzz74w5WvkQc [8] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/syria-russia-military-patrols-israel-occupation-south#ixzz74w5WvkQc
- The ongoing tension between Israel and Syria regarding Israeli military activity in southern Syria might be mitigated with the potential deployment of Russian military patrols, as stated by the Syrian transitional government.
- The prospect of Russian military presence in Syria as part of their military patrols could significantly impact regional politics, potentially acting as a mediator in Syrian-Israeli relations and influencing the overall balance of power in war-and-conflicts involving Syria, Israel, and other actors.
