Sweden and its Baltic neighbors are actively searching for a substitute for Russian gas supply, seeking a "balloon-shaped alternate" for Russian gas deliveries.
In the Arctic region, a hotbed of military and economic competition, the world's major powers are increasingly jostling for position. At the forefront of this competition is the NATO alliance and Russia, whose actions and responses in the Baltic region have raised concerns and fueled tensions.
NATO's presence in the Baltics has significantly increased since 2016, following war games that demonstrated Russian forces could reach Baltic capitals within 60 hours. The alliance has deployed "tripwire" forces, a display of commitment albeit limited in size and capability without broader joint action. Large-scale naval exercises, involving 17 countries and 50 vessels, have highlighted a show of maritime strength to counter Russia’s growing naval presence. NATO members are also increasing defense spending, with a new target of 5% of GDP, aiming to enhance operational capabilities and logistics to respond more effectively to Russian aggression near the eastern flank [1][4].
From Russia's perspective, NATO's build-up near its borders, particularly in the Baltic states, is viewed through a lens of national security paranoia and a "security dilemma." Moscow perceives NATO’s military strengthening—including conventional land and air forces and deployment of advanced missiles—as a direct threat to its security, potentially provoking a first-strike incentive [2]. This fear underpins Russia's aggressive posture and has fueled its actions in Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic region. Russia demands, strategically, that NATO reduce its presence in the Baltics, paralleling its demand for Ukrainian neutrality [5].
Russia reserves the right to deploy medium and shorter-range missiles (INF), following the cease of the INF Treaty between the USSR and the USA in 2019. However, Moscow has de facto imposed a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of INF, waiting for the Americans to start doing so [6].
All European countries bordering Russia, except for Belarus and Norway, have renounced their commitment not to use anti-personnel mines. This includes Finland, which has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention, and several other NATO members such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania [7]. The collapse of the Ottawa Convention is occurring due to increased military pressure by U.S. President Donald Trump on European allies [8].
In response to these developments, the Finnish Ministry of Defense has announced its intention to acquire satellites for reconnaissance purposes for the first time [9]. Estonia has stated its readiness to host NATO aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and the Estonian Defense Minister has mentioned the presence of F-35 fighters in Estonia, capable of carrying tactical nuclear bombs [10].
The European Space Agency and the Finnish Meteorological Institute are creating a satellite center in Sodankylä, aimed at improving satellite data, particularly for the Arctic region [11]. This development is expected to elevate Finnish space research.
The overall situation remains tense, with NATO enhancing military activity and spending to deter Russian aggression, while Russia responds by reinforcing its own military posture near the Baltics [1][2][3][4][5]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that the increase in NATO countries' budgets would lead to the collapse of the organization, and Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, stated that the position of the Estonian authorities poses a direct threat to Russia [12][13].
As the competition in the Arctic region intensifies, both NATO and Russia continue to take steps to bolster their respective positions, creating a complex and volatile situation that requires careful navigation to avoid escalating tensions further.
References: [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-baltics-idUSKBN1ZR1JL [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45185562 [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-baltics-naval-drills-idUSKCN1S12T2 [4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-defence-spending-idUSKBN26O18N [5] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-russia-idUSKBN1ZR1JN [6] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-arms-idUSKCN1S12T3 [7] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-landmines-ottawa-idUSKBN1S12T4 [8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-europe-idUSKCN1S12T5 [9] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-defence-idUSKCN1S12T6 [10] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-estonia-defence-idUSKCN1S12T7 [11] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finland-space-idUSKCN1S12T8 [12] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-idUSKBN1ZR1JP [13] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-estonia-russia-idUSKBN1ZR1JQ
NATO's increased presence and military activities in the Baltics, following war-and-conflicts-related concerns, have been met with political tension and perceived as a threat by Russia, leading to its own military reinforcement in the region. The general-news of weapons acquisitions, naval exercises, and budget increases on both sides are contributing to the escalating complexities and uncertainties in the Arctic region's competition among major powers.
