Surveys indicate a decline in union strength, with the Alternative for Germany party currently holding the highest support.
Germany's Political Landscape Shifts Dramatically, According to Recent Polls
Germany's political landscape is undergoing significant changes, as revealed by recent polls. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to lead or near-lead in many surveys, with support ranging from 24.6% to 26%. This is a notable increase from the early February 2025 election, where the AfD doubled its share to 20.8%.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), traditionally Germany's center-right parties, remain competitive but are trailing slightly. They have support ranging from 24% to 28.5%, though some polls show a slip to 24% as dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz increases.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), a key member of the current coalition government, has seen a decline in support compared to their 2021 results. They currently poll at around 14.2% to 16.2%. The Greens and the Left Party (Die Linke) are currently polling at about 11.8%-13.5% and 9%-10.5% respectively. The Left Party has notably recovered from under 5% earlier in 2025 to solid double digits recently.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist offshoot of the Left Party, has declined to just under the 5% threshold, at roughly 3.9%-5%. This narrowly misses Bundestag representation. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) polls weakly, struggling below the 5% entry threshold for parliament, with support ranging from 3.4% to 5%.
These trends suggest a more fragmented Bundestag with potential challenges for stable coalitions ahead of the next scheduled election in 2029. The AfD’s rise aligns with broader European trends of populist right-wing surges. The BSW’s narrow failure to enter indicates fragmentation on the left-populist spectrum. The FDP's low polling suggests declining influence within the liberal camp.
The Insa Institute conducted a poll from August 5 to 11, surveying 2,505 citizens by phone, which showed 60% of citizens are unhappy with the federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. In comparison, 27% of citizens are satisfied with the federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This is a decrease from early June, when 37% of citizens were satisfied with the federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, according to a different poll.
The FDP is currently in seventh place, with 3% of the vote, according to the Insa Institute poll. The BSW is in sixth place, with 4% of the vote. The SPD is in third place, with 13% of the vote, while the Greens are in fourth place, also with 13% of the vote. The Left Party is in fifth place, with 11% of the vote. Six percent of citizens would vote for other parties, and 25% are undecided or would not vote.
It is worth noting that no party currently has enough votes to enter the Bundestag with the current poll results. The newspaper for which the Insa Institute conducted the poll was Bild am Sonntag. A more recent poll conducted by Forsa for RTL/n-tv on August 12, 2025, showed the AfD leading with 26% of the vote.
These shifts in the political landscape could have significant implications for Germany's future, particularly as the country approaches the next scheduled election in 2029.
The surge in support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and its lead or near-lead in recent polls suggests a shift in German politics towards a policy-and-legislation agenda that aligns with their populist ideologies, as revealed by the poll results.
The significance of these changes becomes more evident when considering the decline in support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), a key member of the current coalition government, which may impact the general news narrative surrounding the political stability of the country in the years leading up to the 2029 election.
