Survey findings on Poland on the brink of presidential election
Poland's Presidential Runoff: A Cliffhanger Election
WARSAW—Polls indicate a tight race leading up to Poland's presidential runoff, with frontrunners Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki seeing a virtual tie in the latest surveys. According to a survey conducted by "Onet," Trzaskowski stands at a narrow lead of 50.1% of the votes, while Nawrocki trails closely behind at 49.9%. However, a survey from "Wirtualna Polska" shows a different outcome, with Nawrocki leading at 50.63% and Trzaskowski at 49.37%.
Come Sunday night, the election results promise excitement, as the outcome remains unpredictable for hours after polls close at 9 PM. Projections will only be available following the closure, with a larger margin of error than the slim polling gap between the two candidates. Poles do not have the tradition of exit polls, similar to Germany. The official results are expected to be released on Monday.
This election carries significant weight for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is part of Trzaskowski's camp, as well as for Poland, an EU and NATO member. The election's outcome will shape the direction of Poland, potentially impacting Germany and the wider European Union.
The nearly 29 million eligible voters in Poland will choose a successor to the outgoing Andrzej Duda. The Polish president serves a five-year term and holds more powers than the federal president in Germany. In addition to representing the country externally, the head of state influences foreign policy, appoints the prime minister and cabinet, and serves as the supreme commander of the armed forces during wartime.
The 2020 election did not result in drastic shifts in the political landscape of Poland, Germany, or the broader European context, as more recent or closely contested elections have. However, it reinforced the dominance of the conservative, nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and deepened political rifts, setting the stage for ongoing struggles over rule of law, democratic standards, and Poland's place in Europe.
For more information on the impact of subsequent elections, such as the 2025 presidential race, which features a closely contested race between liberal and conservative candidates with rising far-right influence, please specify, as the situation is evolving rapidly.
In the aftermath of Poland's presidential runoff, the outcome could significantly impact the direction of Poland's domestic and foreign policies, potentially influencing Germany and the wider European Union. The service of understanding the impact of subsequent elections, such as the 2025 presidential race, is crucial, as it may witness a contested race between liberal and conservative candidates with increasing far-right influence, dynamic changes in Poland's political landscape.
