Supporting nations refraining from active involvement in the Israel-Iran dispute.
Laid-Back Leak:
BEIRUT - Traditionally, Hezbollah serves as Iran's top dog in case of a skirmish with Israel. Yet, in this latest round of chaos in the region, the Lebanese militia group seems to be steering clear. A similar silence can be heard from powerful Iraqi militias, which have supposedly been backed by Iran, even when Israeli attacks reportedly utilized Iraqi airspace.
The 'Resistance Axis'
Hezbollah was birthed with Iranian backing in the '80s as a guerrilla force fighting against Israel's presence in southern Lebanon. Known for ousting Israeli forces and building up their arsenal over the decades, Hezbollah became a potent force in the Middle East and the spearhead of an alliance of Iran-backed factions and governments known as the "Resistance Axis."
This alliance also includes Iraqi Shiite militias, Yemen's Houthi rebels, and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. At one point, Hezbollah was reported to have around 150,000 rockets and missiles, with its late leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once claiming an army of 100,000 fighters.
After supporting Hamas in the wake of their October 2023 attack on southern Israel and Israel's counterattack in Gaza, Hezbollah began launching rockets across the border. This back-and-forth soon spiraled into a full-blown war in September. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders, and destroying much of their arsenal. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire put an end to the hostilities in November. Israel continues to occupy segments of southern Lebanon and conduct near-daily airstrikes.
Iraqi militias occasionally attacked bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen's Houthis fired upon vessels in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, and began targeting Israel.
Sympathy Statements, No Retaliation Pledges
Hezbollah and its leader, Naim Kassem, have publicly condemned Israel's attacks and expressed condolences for the Iranian officers who perished. But Kassem didn't hint at involvement in any retaliation against Israel.
Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia - a different group from Lebanon's Hezbollah - released a statement lamenting Israeli alleged use of Iraqi airspace, a concern Baghdad brought up to the U.N. Security Council. However, the Iraqi militia demanded no specific action against Israel.
Battleground Burnouts
Hezbollah's strength was significantly diminished after the recent fighting and the loss of a major supply route for Iranian weapons following the swift fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally.
"Hezbollah has been left hanging out to dry while focusing on Iran's broader regional ambitions," said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at King's College London.
New Horizons for the Resistance Axis
Numerous Hezbollah members feel they were sacrificed for Iran's regional aspirations in response to Hamas' attack on Israel, leading them to prefer focusing on Lebanon-centric interests rather than defending Iran.
However, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, left open the possibility that the militant group could still play a part in the Israel-Iran conflict.
"We'll cross that bridge when we come to it," Qassir said. "A lot depends on developments both politically and militarily."
Both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias "lack the strategic deep-strike capability against Israel that Hezbollah once boasted," Krieg said. Chatham House researcher Renad Mansour added that Iraq's Iran-allied militias have always strived to keep Iraq out of major conflicts.
"Things are going great for them in Iraq at the moment, they enjoy political benefits, economic prosperity, and are benefiting from being connected to the state," Mansour said. "Plus, they've seen what's happened to Iran and Hezbollah, and they don't want to suffer the same fate."
This leaves the Houthis as the probable new hub of the Resistance Axis. However, the group isn't strong enough or geographically close enough to strategically hurt Israel beyond erratic missile attacks.
"The idea that the Resistance Axis factions were Iranian puppets, fully controlled by Tehran, was never accurate, but now the ties have frayed even further," Krieg said. "It's not really a cohesive axis anymore, but rather a loose network of groups struggling to survive."
The article was written by Sewell for the Associated Press.
Additional Reading
Fragile Calm: The Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip May Not Hold. Here's Why
Fatalities Reported for Twenty-Two: Lebanon Deals with Israeli Forces Lingering After Withdrawal Deadline
The Gruesome Grimace: Ninety-five Coffins, Countless Wounds: Lebanon Struggles to Grasp Hezbollah's 'Victory' Over Israel
Insights:
- Political Instructions: Iran may have instructed its allies to avoid escalating the conflict to better manage it or due to their weakened condition following recent battles.
- Military Setbacks: After facing heavy blows, Hezbollah has seen its leadership depleted and its arsenal decimated, reducing its effectiveness in engaging in the conflict.
- Cautious Approach: Both Iran and its allies might be reluctant to escalate the conflict out of concern for severe consequences, including regional involvement and increased international pressure.
- Waning Ties: The idea that the Resistance Axis factions were puppets of Iran has always been inaccurate, but now the ties have become even looser as each group focuses on their own survival.
- The 'Resistance Axis' has been impacted by recent conflicts, with Hezbollah losing a major supply route for Iranian weapons following the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally.
- After Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah during a war in September, Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia, a different group from Lebanon's Hezbollah, expressed concern over Israel's alleged use of Iraqi airspace but did not demand specific action against Israel.
- In California, political discussion on war-and-conflicts in the Middle East, as well as general news, often revolves around the actions of Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and Yemen's Houthi rebels, and their role in the Resistance Axis.
