Supporting Democrats are distancing themselves from Israel. What's preventing political leaders from following suit?
The United States' support for Israel, a long-standing ally, has become a contentious issue within the Democratic Party. A recent development in the defense budget bill revealed that only four House Democrats voted in favour of an amendment that would have stripped Israel of $500 million in military aid.
This divide between the Democratic establishment and Democratic-leaning voters is a result of several factors. AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, remains a powerful force in American politics, despite a shift in public opinion among Democrats towards a more pro-Palestinian stance.
AIPAC's influence is evident through its substantial financial contributions and lobbying efforts. In the 2024 election cycle alone, AIPAC-affiliated contributions and lobbying expenditures totaled over $55 million. This financial power helps shape legislative behavior and priorities.
The strategic and military alliance with Israel is another reason for AIPAC's continued influence. Israel serves as a strategic foothold in the Middle East, providing intelligence and engaging in high-tech military cooperation with the U.S. This makes the alliance a high political priority for many policymakers.
Entrenched institutional relations also contribute to AIPAC's influence. The U.S. foreign aid to Israel is the largest cumulative aid program ever provided to a single country, with annual military aid rising to nearly $4 billion. This institutional inertia sustains pro-Israel policy.
AIPAC's influence on policymaker behavior is also evident. While some Democratic constituencies are shifting towards more pro-Palestinian positions, influential party leaders, donors, and institutional actors often maintain a more traditional pro-Israel stance. AIPAC's financial and political resources help sustain this status quo within party leadership.
This divide within the Democratic Party could mean that the Biden administration's record on Gaza will be a topic of fierce debate in the 2028 Democratic primaries. However, it's worth noting that despite AIPAC's efforts to unseat critics of Israel, representatives like Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Summer Lee have won reelection comfortably.
The sea-change in public opinion on Israel among Democrats is not just limited to the party, but also extends to independents. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that only 12 percent of Democratic voters sympathize more with Israelis, while 60 percent say they are more sympathetic towards Palestinians.
As the Democratic Party grapples with this divide, some have suggested unconventional strategies to win back voters, such as Democratic officials going on podcasts, finding their own Joe Rogan, and growing facial hair.
However, the longstanding bias against Palestinians in American politics and culture makes it challenging for the issue to receive the attention it deserves. The Anti-Defamation League has conflated anti-Zionism with antisemitism, making it all the more toxic for politicians to talk more openly about Israel's abysmal human rights record.
Despite these challenges, American politicians have recently started pushing back on Israel's war crimes in Gaza, due to the dire situation of Palestinian children dying of hunger. It remains to be seen how this evolving public opinion will shape the future of U.S.-Israel relations within the Democratic Party.
[1] https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/clientsum.php?id=D000055613&year=2024 [2] https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/clientsum.php?id=D000055613&cycle=2024
- AIPAC, a prominent force in American politics, exerts influence by means of substantial financial contributions and lobbying efforts, with $55 million spent in the 2024 election cycle alone. (politics, media, money)
- The strategic and military alliance between the US and Israel, which includes intelligence sharing and high-tech military cooperation, maintains Israel's influence as a political priority for many policymakers. (politics, war-and-conflicts, general-news)
- The cultural bias against Palestinians in America often makes it difficult for the issue to receive the attention it deserves, with some organizations conflating anti-Zionism with antisemitism. (culture, crime-and-justice)
- The ongoing conflict in Gaza and the dire humanitarian situation of Palestinian children is leading some American politicians to push back on Israel's war crimes, signaling a potential shift in public opinion within the Democratic Party. (politics, human rights, elections)
