Supporters of Trump bracing for an unsettling reality
In an article published by the Washington Examiner on August 17, 2016, Margie Omero and Kristen Soltis Anderson, two leading pollsters, discuss the skepticism among Donald Trump's supporters towards traditional polling methods.
Casual observers of politics might believe that the polling industry is incapable of pegging an election right. However, Trump supporters are insisting that the media polls are biased and have been rigged to show Hillary Clinton with a lead she doesn't really have.
This skepticism arises partly from past instances where polls failed to predict Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020, and from a belief that polling methodologies do not capture the full extent or enthusiasm of Trump's base, especially among independents and key demographic groups whom polls often struggle to represent accurately.
Trump supporters look at data showing Trump out of contention for the presidency and insist that the media and academia are getting it wrong. They point to large, energized crowds at rallies and high social media activity as real-time, direct indicators of grassroots support that polls might underestimate or miss entirely.
The podcast "Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture," a weekly show that takes a fresh, friendly look at the numbers driving the week's biggest stories in news, politics, tech, entertainment, and pop culture, has also discussed this dynamic.
However, historians like Robert Mann have noted the fallacy of thinking crowd size is a replacement for looking at polls. This fallacy dates back decades. Few voters have an accurate cross-section of the electorate in their circle of friends, and people who support a particular candidate are unlikely to have close friends who support the opponent.
Moreover, Trump's social media following exceeds Clinton's, but much of his online fanbase is considered a Potemkin village. Despite these challenges, Trump continues to campaign in states where he currently appears to have little to no shot at winning, such as Connecticut.
Recent negative polling data, showing not only decreased approval among independents but also dissatisfaction on issues like immigration and the economy, intensifies this divide. Trump's supporters use the visible energy at rallies and social media dynamics to challenge these findings rather than accept them at face value.
This dynamic explains why many Trump supporters prioritize rally attendance and online engagement metrics over traditional polls when gauging election prospects. Fresh polls this week put Trump behind by 14 points in Colorado and Virginia, but Trump's supporters remain undeterred, continuing to believe in their candidate's potential to defy the odds.
Trump has been pushing the notion that the election is rigged, and his supporters echo this sentiment, believing that the polls are intentionally ignoring them and not accurately representing their support. The authors of the article caution against dismissing these concerns outright, suggesting that the polling industry should take steps to address these concerns and improve its credibility with all voters.
- Despite the criticism towards traditional polling methods, Trump supporters argue that media polls are biased and have been manipulated to show Hillary Clinton with an unwarranted lead.
- Casual observers may doubt the accuracy of polling predictions in politics, but Trump's supporters are adamant about this skewed portrayal of his support.
- Podcasts like "Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture" have examined this dynamic between polling data and the enthusiasm of Trump's base.
- Historians like Robert Mann have pointed out the fallacy in relying on crowd size as a substitute for polling data, a fallacy that has persisted for decades.
- Trump's continuous campaigning in states like Connecticut, where polls predict little to no chance of a win, adds fuel to the fire for his supporters who question the validity of polls.
- Negative polling data, showing decreased approval among independents and dissatisfaction on issues like immigration and the economy, has further widened the divide between poll results and Trump supporters.
- As more polls suggest Trump is trailing significantly in states like Colorado and Virginia, Trump supporters remain unfazed, citing large rallies and social media activity as indicators of unwavering support.
- To mend the rift and restore confidence in the polling industry, the authors of the article suggest that steps should be taken to alleviate the concerns and improve the industry's credibility among all voters.
