Support Survey Reveals Preferred 2028 Presidential Nominees in Key Battleground States
In the latest Emerson College Polling survey, Vice President J.D. Vance has taken a significant lead in the Republican primary race for the 2028 presidential election. The survey, conducted among 1,000 North Carolina registered voters from July 28 to 30, shows Vance leading with 53% support among likely Republican primary voters. This is an increase of 7 points from a previous survey taken in June by Emerson.
Vice President Vance's lead is substantial when compared to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, who have 7% and 5% support respectively. Other candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley are in lower single digits, with about 15% of voters undecided.
On the Democratic side, while no official candidate has declared, early matchup polls show a close race among top contenders. In hypothetical general election matchups, J.D. Vance narrowly leads potential Democratic candidates. For instance, he leads Pete Buttigieg by 1 point (44% to 43%), Gavin Newsom by 3 points (45% to 42%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by 3 points (44% to 41%). Around 13-15% of voters are undecided in these tests.
In the Democratic field, Buttigieg is currently the top choice with 17% among likely primary voters. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows with 12%, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who announced this week that she is not running for California governor in the next cycle, has 10%.
Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, noted that the Democratic primary polling is too early and primarily based on name recognition. He also mentioned that DeSantis and Rubio are considered "damaged goods" due to their losses in past Republican primaries.
The survey also reveals insights into the financial state of swing state voters. Forty percent of swing state voters say their family's finances are worse off than one year prior, while 32% say they are about the same, and 28% say they are better off now.
In an interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Vice President Harris expressed skepticism about the political system, stating she doesn't want to be in it right now but would always "be part of the fight". Her decision not to run for California governor has fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run.
Major candidates are not expected to announce their 2028 campaigns until after the 2026 midterm elections. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
[1] Emerson College Polling Survey Results [2] Early Democratic Contests Show Challenges for Vance [3] Vance Dominates Republican Primary Polling in North Carolina [4] Buttigieg Leads Democratic Primary Polling in Early 2028 Contests
[5] In the realm of economics, a significant number of swing state voters perceive a decline in their financial situation over the past year.[6] Political pundits on media platforms, such as The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, are speculating about potential 2028 candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris.[7] Controversies surrounding past Republican primaries have left DeSantis and Rubio with less favorable standing, according to political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro.[8] The ongoing political race, with its potential candidates blending into the backdrop of general news, Crime and Justice, and car-accidents, is subjected to constant scrutiny in the media.[9] The geopolitical landscape, plainly visible through the lens of war-and-conflicts or migration, may shape the policy-and-legislation agenda of the incoming administration.[10] In a hypothetical clash between J.D. Vance and Pete Buttigieg, voters lean toward Vance by a slight margin in Emerson's polling survey. The same trend is observed in matchups with Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
