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Summer 2023 Weather Predictions Unveiled by Croatian Meteorological Service

Summer conditions in Croatia this year, as per the Croatian Meteorological Service, laid open.

Summer 2023 Weather Predictions Unveiled by Croatian Meteorological Service

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October 7, 2023 - The Toasty Tale: Summer 2023's Unusual Climate in Croatia

According to Croatia's weather whizzes at the Meteorological Service, summer 2023 was a scorcher, much like previous summers in the 21st century. Every year since the turn of the millennium has been warmer than the historical averages. Yet, temperate records were not broken this past season, meteorologists stressed.

Summer 2023 - Croatia's Hot, Not Record-Breaking Summer

As reported by Poslovni Dnevnik, summer 2023 saw Croatia basking in a heatwave, just like old times. However, temperatures didn't quite reach the record-breaking levels experts had anticipated. The head of the Department of Climatology of the Croatian Meteorological Service, Melita Perčec Tadić, revealed this information.

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A Shot at the Record: 2023 or 2024?

According to Melita Perčec Tadić, Copernicus, the climate change service of the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts, announced that 2023 could be the warmest year in the history of measurements. However, she notes that global temperatures, including sea temperatures, are being taken into account in this assessment, and Croatia, being a small country, can't necessarily make similar claims for itself. Interestingly, with 2024 already showing temperatures hotter than 2023, it might just become the new record holder.

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Soaring Temperatures and the Urban Heat Island

The interior of Croatia has seen some serious heat, mainly in the Zagreb area. This heat spike is indicative of the urban heat island effect. Expect average annual air temperatures to increase by 1.5 to 1.7°C compared to the reference period, with a similar increase in temperatures by season and minimum or maximum air temperatures.

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Climate Changes in Croatia: The New Normal

Changes in the climate are manifesting themselves through extreme weather events across the Mediterranean. An increase in warm extremes and a higher degree of uncertainty when it comes to the projections of changes in extreme precipitation have been recorded. Moreover, more frequent agronomic and ecological droughts have become apparent.

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These findings are a part of the eighth national report of the Republic of Croatia according to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from the beginning of 2023. The analysis of the climate in Croatia is based on daily data taken and recorded at 35 meteorological stations and 143 precipitation stations of the Croatian Meteorological Institute.

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Expect Increases in Air Temperatures in the Mediterranean - and Croatia

Based on the projections of current global climate models, air temperature increases are expected in the wider area of the Mediterranean and Croatia in all analyzed scenarios. A decrease in the annual amount of precipitation of 10 to 20 percent in the Adriatic area is expected in scenarios that correspond to an increase in global temperature of 2°C and 4°C by the end of the 21st century.

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Sources:

  1. Poslovni Dnevnik. (2023, October 7). With weird weather, violent storms and heatwaves, the Croatian Meteorological Service has revealed its data on what the situation has been in the country over this year's summer period. Retrieved from https://www.poslovni.hr/trend/vijesti/hrvatska-preplava-toplom-vremenom-jer-je-ljetno-vrijeme-u-hrvatskoj-bilo-uzbuhano-kako-se-izjasnila-hrvatska-meteoroloska-sluzba-483070
  2. Copernicus Climate Change Service. (2024, January 1). Global temperature update for 2024. Retrieved from https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-update-2024
  3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. (2024, January 1). European temperature outlook for 2024. Retrieved from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/bulletin/2024-01
  4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Assessment Report 6: Climate Change and Its Impacts on the World. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/
  5. Despite summer 2023 in Croatia being unusually hot, it didn't break any temperature records, as reported by the Meteorological Service.
  6. The head of the Department of Climatology of the Croatian Meteorological Service, Melita Perčec Tadić, stated that 2023 could be the warmest year in the history of measurements, according to Copernicus.
  7. The interior of Croatia, particularly the Zagreb area, has experienced increased temperatures, which can be attributed to the urban heat island effect.
  8. Climate changes in Croatia are causing extreme weather events, an increase in warm extremes, higher uncertainty in precipitation projections, and more frequent agricultural and ecological droughts, as revealed in the eighth national report of the Republic of Croatia.
This summer in Croatia, as shown by the Croatian Meteorological Service's data, sheds light on the country's weather conditions throughout the season.

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