Global SugarMarket Outlook: What’s Brewing for 2025/26
Sugar costs in New York plummet to four-year low level.
Get your sweet tooth ready, but brace yourself for falling prices — the sugar market is gearing up for a bumper season with a massive production surge from major players worldwide. That's the gist of it, but let's dive deeper into the sugar crystal ball and see what lurks around the corner.
Rising Tides (of Sugar)
The USDA has predicted a 4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production for the 2025/26 season, soaring to record-breaking levels of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT)[1]. That's not all — another estimate by CZ app suggests a close-to-record figure of 188.8 million tonnes[2].
Brazil, one of the giants in the sugar world, is expected to contribute to this production feast. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects a 2.3% increase in Brazil’s sugar production to a record 44.7 MMT[4], while Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, anticipates a slightly more modest 4.0% increase to 45.875 MMT[5].
Not to be outdone, India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is projected to surge its output by a whopping 26% to 35 MMT, thanks to favorable monsoon conditions and expanded acreage[5].
The Rain Only Delivers More Rain (Sugar)
Abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, causing further anxieties for sugar prices. Last year, India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average[4]. With the monsoon season stretching from June through September, the forecast is the reason for the rainbow skies hovering over the sugar market.
Export Opportunities on the Horizon
In a positive move, the Indian government has loosened the restrictions on sugar exports slightly by allowing its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar during this season, following a curb on exports since October 2023[4]. Although this might provide some relief to global sugar prices, India's sugar production is estimated to dive 17.5% year-over-year to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT for the following season (2024/25)[4].
A Sour Patch for Prices
Signs of larger global sugar output in the 2025/26 season are bad news for sugar prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) anticipates Brazil’s sugar production to increase by 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT[4]. India and Thailand are also projected to raise their sugar yields by 25% and 2%, respectively[4].
The anticipation of a significant surplus is already pushing sugar prices to new 112-week lows, and both New York and London sugar futures have plummeted recently[5]. In a nut-shell, the surplus projections, coupled with rising production forecasts, are expected to maintain downward pressure on global sugar prices throughout the 2025/26 season.
A Sweet Tooth on a Leasher Budget
The good news for sugar lovers is that a deposit as low as $100 in Plus500 lets you grab a piece of this sugar pie without breaking the bank. Trade like a pro, and stay ahead of the sugar curve by keeping an eye on these sweet and sour developments in the world of sugar!
[1] Plus500, 2024
[2] CZ app, 2024
[3] Alvean, 2024
[4] Datagro, 2024
[5] Stonex, 2024
- The anticipated increase in global sugar production, including a 26% surge in India's output, might lead to concerns about falling sugar prices, as suggested in the sugar crystal ball.
- The loosened sugar export restrictions by the Indian government could offer export opportunities for sugar mills, providing some relief to global sugar prices during the 2025/26 season.
