Sudan teeters on the brink of another potential post-revolution catastrophe within the MENA region.
The Uncertain Future of Democracy in the MENA Region
The MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region has been a hotbed of political upheaval since the Arab Spring revolution, with most countries either sliding into illiberalism, autocratic rule, or civil war. Sudan, with a history marred by civil wars, sectarian conflicts, and strongman rule, is shaping up to follow suit.
The Dwindling Hope for a Democratic Future
Just a few short years ago, a wave of popular uprisings swept through parts of the MENA region, toppling long-standing autocratic regimes. There was hope that these revolutions would pave the way for the birth of new democracies. However, as time has shown, the outcome has been anything but satisfactory.
Sudan: A Nation on the Edge
Sudan, a nation with a tumultuous post-independence history, has joined other MENA nations teetering on the brink of an uncertain future. In 2019, young Sudanese citizens, exhausted by decades of corruption, conflicts, and unemployment, took to the streets to demand change. After almost three decades, they finally had had enough. With the support of the military, they managed to oust President Omar al-Bashir. A new government, composed of the military, a paramilitary force, and civilians, was established to guide the transition to a democratic administration.
However, two years later, the military, accustomed to maintaining control, forced out the civilian government. The country is now governed by General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese military, and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). These two generals are currently locked in a power struggle, with one eye on controlling the direction of their country.
Democracy's Disappointing Echo
So, what went wrong? Why has the dream of democracy in the MENA region proved to be such a mirage? Here, I'll delve into three key factors that have contributed to the region's democratic regression.
1. Resistance from Established MonarchiesThe MENA region is home to several entrenched monarchies, who have little interest in seeing the establishment of strong democracies in their backyard. Instead, they prefer to have similar regimes as neighbors. One example is Egypt, where the Mubarak regime's fall caused much anguish among Arab monarchies. Following the ousting of the Morsi government, these monarchies showered General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's government with billions of dollars in support, solidifying their hold on power and stifling the nascent democratic experiment in the process.
2. Failure to Build Strong InstitutionsMany rulers in the MENA region have prioritized building personality cults and patronage systems over establishing strong institutions. These institutions, such as the judiciary, media, and civil society organizations, are weakened or deliberately undermined. Critics of the government are silenced, and those who do not have access to the rulers receive a disproportionate share of the national cake.
3. Influence of Non-State ActorsSome MENA rulers rely on non-state actors to maintain power, using them to suppress dissent and carry out unpleasant duties. These non-state actors, when rewarded with lucrative contracts and mining rights, have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
As the conflict in Sudan rages on, with General Burhan and Hemedti battling for control, the region watches with bated breath. The conflict is still in its nascent stages, but it could potentially escalate into a full-blown regional conflict. The future of Sudan hangs in the balance, and it's a lesson we in Ghana and other African countries cannot ignore: the need to strengthen our democratic institutions is paramount.
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The MENA region presents a stark contrast to other regions, such as Latin America and Eastern Europe, where democratization has been more successful. The root causes of the region's democratic regression include historical authoritarianism, external interference, sectarian divisions, economic dependence on oil, coup d'états, and weak institutional capacity. Cross-region comparisons reveal the importance of strong political institutions, civil society engagement, and reduced external interference in fostering successful democracies.
- The dwindling hope for democracy in the MENA region is evident in the report outlining the challenging journey towards democracy, with Sudan being a notable example of a nation on the edge.
- The employment of non-state actors by MENA rulers to suppress dissent and maintain power is a concerning trend that contributes to the region's policy-and-legislation environment, where democracy often takes a backseat.
- The growth of democracy in the MENA region has been hindered by resistance from established monarchies, further complicating general-news narratives about the democratic development in the region.
- In the context of the war-and-conflicts in the MENA region, particularly Sudan, the development of strong political institutions is of utmost importance for fostering lasting peace and promoting a democratic future.
