Crime and Commute: Public Transit Fear and Car Usage
Subway Crimes in Toronto Spark Increase in Car Usage among Residents
Toronto has witnessed a surge in crime on its metro in recent years, causing unrest among commuters. Émile Gendreau Côte, a master's student in economics at the University of Montreal, aims to delve into this growing concern by examining the impact of crime on users' travel choices.
According to Côte, the escalating violence has shaken commuters' confidence. Notably, a 31-year-old woman was stabbed at the High Park station, and subsequently, a woman was stabbed multiple times on a streetcar, a 16-year-old boy was stabbed in the chest on a bus, and a teenager was stabbed to death on a metro platform in March 2023.
Côte analyzed data on public transit ridership and automobile trips, focusing on violent events in the Toronto metro between 2019 and 2023. In his preliminary findings, he discovered that the media coverage of a crime led to a significant decrease in metro ridership within two weeks. In the following three weeks, automobile traffic increased, while the effect on Uber trips was limited.
Tragic incidents such as these seem to be altering commuters' preferences for safer transportation options, favoring personal vehicles and private ride-sharing services. However, it's essential to note that access to data regarding cycling trips in the City of Toronto proved difficult, preventing a comprehensive analysis of all transportation modes.
Côte presented his early findings at the 92nd Congress of the Acfas in January 2023. He plans to build upon this initial research for his master's thesis, with final research results expected this summer.
In an attempt to curb violence, the City of Toronto implemented additional measures such as adding special constables, hiring customer service agents, and implementing a real-time text messaging system for users to report violent incidents in January 2023.
Toronto isn't the only urban center grappling with increased crime on public transportation. Last year, Montreal welcomed controversial changes from the Society of Montreal Transportation, making it less accommodating to itinerants and loiterers in the metro due to an increase in users' sense of insecurity.
The preliminary findings in Toronto sheds light on the possibility that similar trends may be observed in Montreal. As columnist Richard Martineau shared news of his daughter being assaulted in the metro at Lionel-Groulx station, it is believed this could lead some commuters to avoid public transit due to perceived danger.
With urban crime rates varying across cities, it's a pertinent question whether crime statistical trends in major transit systems like Toronto and Montreal influence commuters' decisions to switch to personal vehicles or ride-sharing services for safety reasons. Unfortunately, direct correlation data on this issue is currently not available.
However, it's plausible to speculate that increased incidents of crime on public transportation could lead to a higher demand for personal vehicles or ride-sharing services for safety reasons, assuming personal safety perceptions, costs, and convenience are considered. To establish a more precise correlation, detailed studies or data analysis focusing on these specific factors would be required.
- In light of escalating crimes on the metro, a student named Émile Gendreau Cote is conducting analyses on the impact of such incidents on commuters' travel choices, specifically focusing on the French city of Montreal.
- In Toronto, tragic crimes like stabbings on public transit have led to a significant decrease in ridership within two weeks, with an increase in automobile traffic in the following three weeks, suggesting that commuter preferences may shift towards safer transportation options such as personal vehicles and ride-sharing services.
- As urban centers like Toronto and Montreal grapple with increased crime on public transportation, it is worth investigating whether statistical trends in major transit systems influence commuters to switch to personal vehicles or ride-sharing services for safety reasons.
- As the City of Toronto works on curbing violence with measures like adding special constables and a real-time reporting system, it remains unclear if similar trends will be observed in French cities such as Montreal, especially considering the recent news of a columnist's daughter being assaulted in the metro.
