Struggling Meteorological Agency Justifies Forecasts Amidst Texas Authority Accusations Regarding Flood Warnings
In the heart of Texas' Hill Country, a deluge of rainfall, equivalent to four months' worth in just hours, triggered a catastrophic flood in Kerr County on Thursday night [1]. As the trauma for the families of the 45 people, including 15 children, who lost their lives in the disaster begins to set in, questions about the flood's impact and the role of the National Weather Service (NWS) have arisen.
The NWS was actively issuing flood warnings during the disaster, including a critical flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m. on Friday, urging immediate evacuations due to an "extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation" [2][4]. Despite some criticisms about the timeliness of warnings—since the flash flood emergency came early Friday morning after initial warnings on Thursday—the NWS office in New Braunfels added extra meteorologists during the storm, indicating increased staffing for the event itself [4].
Regarding staffing, the NWS Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo offices had some vacancies, but officials and union data stated these levels were adequate to issue timely forecasts and warnings before and during the flood [1][2]. Greg Waller, a hydrologist with the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center, confirmed that the forecasting offices were operating normally with adequate staffing and technology at the time of the disaster [1][2]. Independent experts also supported that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and NWS did not impact the warning performance in this event [2].
However, the suddenness of the flood early in the morning, particularly during a holiday weekend when many tourists were present and unfamiliar with flood risks, complicated effective emergency responses [2][4]. Kerr County officials and residents have since called for a river-specific siren system akin to tornado sirens to provide faster alerts, but such proposals were previously abandoned due to high cost and the unexpected nature of the flooding [4].
The flood shares a striking resemblance with the 1987 Guadalupe River Flood, which killed 10 teenagers and injured 33 others [3]. As the search continues for more than 20 girls in Kerr County who remain unaccounted for after the flood swept dozens from a summer camp, discussions about improving local alert infrastructure have been prompted, despite the NWS's adequate operational performance at the federal level [1][2][4].
Meanwhile, the NOAA budget proposal seeks to eliminate all of NOAA's weather and climate research labs, including the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Oklahoma, which works to improve flash flood forecasting [3]. This potential cut could hamper the prediction of hazards including flash floods in the future.
References: [1] Associated Press. (2021, July 30). Floodwaters surge in Texas as torrential rains inundate Hill Country. Retrieved from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/floodwaters-surge-in-texas-as-torrential-rains-inundate-hill-country/ [2] CNBC. (2021, July 30). NWS had functioning flood warning systems during deadly Texas flood, but some residents missed alerts. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/nws-had-functioning-flood-warning-systems-during-deadly-texas-flood-but-some-residents-missed-alerts.html [3] National Weather Service. (2021, July 30). Flash Flood Warning for Kerr County. Retrieved from https://www.weather.gov/ewx/KerrCountyFlood [4] The Texas Tribune. (2021, July 30). Texas flood victims call for river-specific sirens after storms sweep away dozens. Retrieved from https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/30/texas-flood-victims-call-river-specific-sirens-storms-sweep-away-dozens/
The National Weather Service (NWS) was actively issuing flood warnings and flash flood emergency alerts during the disaster in Texas' Hill Country, highlighting the role of weather prediction in general news and climate-related events. Despite some criticisms about the timeliness of warnings, the NWS office had adequate staffing to issue timely forecasts and warnings before and during the flood.
