Struggling Conservatives Face Tough Challenges in Upcoming 2024 Local Elections
The 2023 local elections in the UK have presented significant challenges for the Conservative Party, with evidence of continuous losses and rising competition from parties like Reform UK. These elections, which saw the Conservatives lose more than 100 councillors across the country and suffer a 26-point swing to Labour in the Blackpool South byelection, have been one of the worst, or potentially the worst, performances by the party in 40 years [1][2][3].
In multiple council by-elections held after 2023, Reform UK has made notable gains at the expense of both the Conservatives and Labour. For instance, Reform UK gained council seats from the Conservatives in Dartford wards and from Labour in Basildon, while Conservative vote shares fell sharply in these contests [1][2].
The decline in Conservative support was also evident in London, where the party lost ground to Reform UK in Bromley, despite concerted efforts by senior Conservative figures like Kemi Badenoch. This result revealed local dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and suggested vulnerabilities even in their traditional strongholds [2].
The 2024 general election, held shortly before these local contests, was a severe defeat for the Conservatives, with Labour gaining a large majority in the House of Commons and the Conservatives losing over 200 seats. This outcome reduced the Conservatives to just 131 seats nationally, severely weakening their political mandate and undermining Sunak’s premiership [3].
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has admitted that the local election announcements have been a 'tough set' for the Conservative party [4]. Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns has expressed doubt about whether her colleagues will put in letters to trigger a leadership contest against Sunak, stating that he has been told by the electorate to 'wake up' and be more Conservative or risk losing [5].
As of now, 53 out of 107 councils have been accounted for in the local elections, and counting is expected to continue into the long weekend. The cumulative effect of these losses signals ongoing difficulties for Sunak in consolidating party unity and public support. Local election disappointments, including the rise of Reform UK, put pressure on the Conservative leadership to address voter dissatisfaction on issues such as economic management and leadership credibility.
Keir Starmer, in reference to the general election, said that there is a clear divide between Labour and the Conservatives, with 14 years of failure and decline from the Tories [6]. The implications for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are significant, as they face the challenge of regaining political momentum after the 2024 general election defeats.
[1] Source: BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65225628 [2] Source: The Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/reform-uk-gains-as-conservatives-suffer-local-election-setbacks [3] Source: Sky News - https://news.sky.com/story/2023-local-elections-results-live-updates-conservative-losses-and-labour-gains-12610574 [4] Source: ITV News - https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-05/rishi-sunak-admits-conservative-local-election-results-have-been-a-tough-set [5] Source: The Independent - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-jenkyns-conservative-party-rishi-sunak-wake-up-b2207460.html [6] Source: The Telegraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/05/keir-starmer-says-there-clear-divide-labour-conservatives-14/
(Image: UK Local Elections 2023 - Shutterstock)
- The local election performances across the UK in 2023 have highlighted significant policy-and-legislation and politics-related issues for the Conservative Party, as they face ongoing losses against competitors such as Reform UK.
- The results of the 2023 local elections, accompanied by Reform UK's notable gains and the Conservatives' sharp declines in vote shares, have emphasized the need for the Conservative Party's local government to address voter dissatisfaction on topics like economic management and leadership credibility.
