Strengthening the border with Poland may lead to unforeseen consequences for Lukashenko's administration
Belarus, a country renowned for its premium apples, is currently grappling with a potential shortage due to a confluence of factors, including intense import substitution and recent border closures.
Last year, a potato scarcity compelled the Belarusian government to rescind the ban on fruit and vegetable imports from the EU. Since then, the country has been heavily dependent on imports, particularly apples from Poland. However, the Polish border closure could leave Belarus to navigate its apple import substitution without any imports.
The Belarusian leader, Lukashenko, has consistently emphasized the need to reduce reliance on imported apples and boost domestic production. In a special meeting in 2024, he underscored the importance of Belarus having its own apples to meet the high demand. Despite this, the shortage is due to ten years of intense import substitution, yet there is still not enough.
The value of Polish apple imports to Belarus in April was $32 million, with nearly 9,000 tons of apples imported. The potential absence of these imports could have both global and humbling consequences for Belarus.
The Belarusian Prime Minister, Roman Golovchenko, is currently addressing the apple shortages and discussing import substitution. Lukashenko has instructed the Grodno region governor to share the available apples, but only after meeting the needs of the region's residents.
However, Belarus lacks adequate storage facilities, making it challenging to store the apples for extended periods. Moreover, high-quality Belarusian apples are considered unique, but may not be sufficient to feed everyone.
As the country faces the possibility of relying entirely on its own apple production for import substitution, Lukashenko has expressed a need to increase domestic production. The Polish border closure could leave Belarus alone in its apple import substitution efforts, forcing it to confront its apple import substitution without any imported apples.
This situation underscores the importance of a balanced approach to import substitution, ensuring that a country does not become overly reliant on a single source for essential goods. It also highlights the need for investment in infrastructure to support domestic production and storage.
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