Strained Alliance: Optimism Wanes Between Merz and Selensky
Current Situation and Diplomatic Tensions:
Berlin - Four days into his tenure, Chancellor Friedrich Merz held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, raising hopes for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing war. However, as they meet again in Berlin today, the initial optimism has all but vanished.
The fragile dialogue between Russia and Ukraine has shattered, with intensified Russian air attacks. US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from involvement has left the Europeans to tackle the crisis on their own.
Visit Confirmed After Long Speculation:
Rumors of Zelensky's visit to Berlin had circulated in recent days, but such trips are typically kept hidden for security reasons until the last moment. An official confirmation was only given a few hours prior. "The visit will focus on German support for Ukraine and efforts to secure a ceasefire," government spokesman Stefan Kornelius stated in the morning.
This is Zelensky's fourth visit to Berlin since Russia invaded Ukraine over three years ago, and it comes at a time of immense strain - and coincides with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul's inaugural visit to Washington.
Merz's top diplomat will use his meeting today with US counterpart Marco Rubio to advocate for a united front with America in dealing with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. "To get Putin to the negotiating table and to encourage Russia to engage in serious negotiations, we must sustain the pressure," CDU politician Merz said before his flight to Washington, stating the need to maintain sanctions and tighten their screws.
Merz's Dim View of Diplomatic Prospects:
Merz has conveyed a sense of abandoning hope for a diplomatic resolution in recent days. Wars, he suggested on Tuesday during his visit to Finland, usually end due to economic or military exhaustion among the belligerents. "We are still far from that in this war. Therefore, I expect that we may have to prepare for a protracted conflict," he said.
The disillusionment with diplomatic efforts is also the reason Merz has publicly announced lifting the range limit for the use of German weapons in the Ukraine conflict. He supports Ukrainian military strikes against Russian positions to signal Europe's unwavering solidarity with Ukraine.
Once more, calls are being made by the Greens and the Union for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. Merz has previously been cautious about this topic, deciding not to address it publicly anymore.
Zelensky's Call for Military Expansion:
In his video message, Zelensky announced plans to expand the country's defense industry. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to be able to retaliate against Russia's actions. "Key elements for this are attack drones, interceptors, cruise missiles, and Ukrainian ballistic missiles. We must produce everything," he demanded.
Though these are currently only plans, the government is said to be preparing investment agreements with European partners to relocate further military production to Ukraine.
Ukraine's Struggling Defense:
Ukraine has made advancements with its drones, enabling it to selectively damage energy facilities and military targets, as well as disrupt civilian air traffic. Still, Russia maintains air superiority, as evidenced by the recent heavy nighttime bombings.
Though Ukraine's air defense has been strengthened, including with German assistance, Russian drone swarms are growing in size, and there are limited defenses against glide bombs and ballistic missiles. There's a shortage of weapon systems and air defense ammunition.
In the Donbass region in the east, Ukraine's defenders are fighting tenaciously. Despite losing soldiers and equipment, Russian forces are advancing methodically. The Kremlin is amassing troops for potential summer offensives, with the threat of extending the frontline as they seek to establish a buffer zone along the border. Both sides remain mired in a war of attrition, with an uncertain outcome.
Peace Efforts and Trump's Failed Initiatives:
Trump's plan upon taking office was to use his supposed connection with Putin to achieve a swift end to the war. Instead, he pressured Ukraine, regardless of aligning with them. Despite numerous high-level phone calls and preliminary meetings, no substantial progress has been made beyond a direct Ukrainian-Russian dialogue in Istanbul, which led only to a prisoner exchange.
Kyiv accepted Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire as a starting point for negotiations. However, Moscow continues to rebuff this and remains committed to its maximalist demands: Ukraine must be disarmed and effectively brought back under Russian control.
Given Trump's inconsistent stance, European countries become increasingly essential in ensuring their continent's security. Alongside continued military support, a new sanctions package is likely to follow. However, Russia has so far shown resilience against sanctions.
Russia's leadership has also dismissed mounting dissatisfaction from Trump. After huge Russian bombings of Ukrainian cities over the weekend, when Trump called Putin "crazy," the Kremlin interpreted this remark as an indication of Trump's emotional overload due to the ongoing negotiations.
- As the fragile dialogue between Russia and Ukraine deteriorates amid intensified Russian air attacks, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are discussing German support for Ukraine and pushing for a united front with the United States to exert pressure on Russia, hinting at the potential need for prolonged conflict.
- In response to the escalating war-and-conflicts and the failure of diplomatic efforts, Merz has announced lifting the range limit for the use of German weapons, signaling Europe's unwavering solidarity with Ukraine, and likewise, Zelensky has called for the expansion of Ukraine's defense industry to include attack drones, interceptors, cruise missiles, and Ukrainian ballistic missiles, looking towards general-news partners for potential investments and military technology transfer.
