Stifling the primary opposition party in Turkey's democracy: A recent test faced by the nation
In the heart of Turkey, a political battle is unfolding that promises to shape the country's future and its global standing. At the centre of this struggle is the Republican People's Party (CHP), led by popular presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, who has been under arrest since mid-March on charges of corruption and financial wrongdoing.
Over 80% of Turks express doubts about the impartial application of justice in Imamoglu's case, according to recent surveys, fuelling perceptions that the legal actions against the CHP are politically motivated. This sentiment is echoed by approximately 60% of the population, as suggested by polls in Turkish media.
The government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is consolidating power by targeting opposition parties, including the CHP. Erdogan aims to remove the constitutional term limit that currently blocks his re-election, either through a constitutional amendment requiring broad parliamentary and societal support or by calling early elections. His government's actions are designed to weaken political resistance and secure Erdogan's long-term authoritarian rule.
The CHP, however, has managed to survive repeated legal battles and broaden its base through political activism that resonates with large segments of the population. The number of imprisoned CHP mayors has risen to fourteen, alongside more than 200 party and municipal officials. A district court even annulled the CHP's Istanbul provincial congress and appointed trustees who are affiliated with the CHP but in opposition to the party's current leadership.
The ruling coalition currently lacks the necessary votes for either option, and there are unconfirmed reports of unease among some segments of the AKP, fearing popular backlash. The AKP, after more than two decades of uninterrupted rule, has lost much of its earlier appeal and is reliant on coalition arrangements with smaller parties.
Erdogan's current reputation as an increasingly authoritarian leader stands in stark contrast with his earlier democratic reforms that led to EU membership negotiations. His pursuit of a legal pathway to re-election, which requires either amending the constitution or calling early elections, risks his legacy, as many see him overseeing the dismantling of the main opposition and Turkey's descent into illiberal democracy.
The CHP's popularity, coupled with the decline of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), presents a major challenge to Erdogan's presumed re-election quest. The Turkish people expect and deserve leadership that honours democratic principles as a legacy. The preferred alternative for Turkey's future is to rekindle its democratic traditions and rule of law practices, respecting elected officials, and honouring the will of the people.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with its scholars providing news and analysis on the world's most pressing challenges, continues to monitor the situation closely. The dynamics unfolding in Turkey will significantly impact its future and its place in the world.
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