Steep fall observed in wine production throughout the years
EU Wine Production Forecast to Drop by 10% in 2024/2025
The European Union (EU) is bracing for a significant drop in wine production, with a projected decline of 10% for the 2024/2025 period, according to the EU executive's summer 2025 report. This forecast is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions, increased vine diseases, and heat stress.
The unfavourable weather patterns have disrupted the grape growing cycle, causing issues during flowering and later stages of vine development. Vine diseases like mildew and sunscald, which occur due to high temperatures and low humidity, have also contributed to the anticipated decrease.
The Douro Demarcated Region of Portugal is expected to be particularly hard-hit, with a forecasted drop in production of around 20%. Other regions across the EU are also expected to see reductions, including Germany (11%), France (25%), and Portugal (8%).
Despite these challenges, wine production in Italy and Spain is expected to increase by 15% and 10% respectively. However, these gains are not expected to offset the decreases in other countries.
Interestingly, the report also predicts a fall in oil prices, but geopolitical instability, climate-related challenges, and evolving trade policies of major global players could potentially affect this prediction.
In contrast to wine production, poultry production is expected to grow due to growing demand. The production prospects for sugar, ruminant meat, and milk show a downward trend.
The EU agricultural markets' report also notes that input costs for EU farmers have recently stabilized, despite historically high levels. Meanwhile, milk deliveries remain stable according to the Commission's anticipations.
It's worth noting that olive oil production is experiencing a 37% increase through June. However, no new information about poultry production, milk deliveries, olive oil production, sugar, ruminant meat, or wine production was provided in this paragraph.
Overall, the EU food inflation for summer 2025 is 3.1%, higher than the overall inflation rate of 2.2% in May. Stability or even deflation is observed in some food product categories within the EU.
[1] Source: EU executive's summer 2025 report on agricultural markets.
The challenging weather conditions and increased vine diseases, such as mildew and sunscald, in Portugal may negatively impact its food-and-drink industry, particularly the lifestyle aspect of Portuguese wine production, which is expected to decrease by 8%. The forecasted decrease in Portuguese wine production, combined with reductions in other EU countries like Germany, France, and the Douro Demarcated Region, could lead to changes in the overall EU food-and-drink landscape.
