Steadfast security assurances for Ukraine are essential to sustain long-lasting peace.
In a potential development, European forces and resources, with U.S. assistance in areas like intelligence and air support, could be deployed in postwar Ukraine. This mission, if implemented, would be significant for several reasons.
Firstly, it would serve as a security guarantee for Ukraine, albeit not the NATO Article 5 guarantee that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been seeking. The presence of European troops on the ground would act as a visible and credible deterrent to Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially delaying any potential Russian attack into NATO lands.
Secondly, this mission could help reveal and rebuild Europe's force structures, manpower, combat equipment, and logistics capability. For half a century, nations like France have aspired to achieve credible military force structures and capabilities independent of the U.S. The operation in Ukraine would provide an opportunity to assess and strengthen these capabilities, which have diminished over the decades.
However, it's important to note that the rearmament of European militaries is impressive but still inadequate to combat a full-scale Russian invasion. An operation in Ukraine would reveal the shortfalls of Europe's forces in full-spectrum operational capabilities, including the lack of smaller items needed for synchronized forces.
The mission could also improve Europe's independent operational capabilities. Deployment of a peace enforcement or peacekeeping force in Ukraine would serve as an important step for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his people, as they seek security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
The support for this mission is growing, with Poland, Lithuania, and the United States announcing their backing. The responsible organizers include the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence, and the U.S. Department of State.
Convincing European voters to form and deploy such a force will be challenging, as it involves putting their sons and daughters in harm's way. However, it is the cost of providing a security guarantee, ensuring an enduring peace, and being ready to defend not only Ukraine but the whole of Europe.
U.S. President Donald Trump's plan doesn't call for abandoning Europe; America can and likely will provide significant enablers outside of Ukraine, such as command and control, logistics, and in-theater air transport.
This mission, if properly manned, trained, and equipped, would have significant collateral benefits for European defense, both as a short-term tripwire and in rebuilding much-needed defense capability in the longer term. It would deliver the next step in this process, with a European mission in Ukraine, supported by U.S. 'over the horizon' assets. The White House has set a clear geographic dividing line, with no plans for U.S. troops on the ground in postwar Ukraine.
Retired U.S. Army brigadier general and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, Mark T. Kimmitt, has highlighted the importance of this mission, stating that it would be an important step towards achieving Europe's long-held aspiration of achieving credible military force structures and capabilities independent of the U.S.
In conclusion, the proposed European mission in postwar Ukraine is a significant development that could strengthen European defense, provide a security guarantee for Ukraine, and improve Europe's independent operational capabilities. However, the challenges of convincing European voters and the potential shortfalls of Europe's forces in full-spectrum operational capabilities must not be overlooked.
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