Sporting Giant Athletic Club Plans to Compete Against Real Madrid and Barcelona Heavyweights
In the upcoming 2025-26 La Liga season, the battle for the final Champions League qualification place is shaping up to be a fierce contest between Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal. Kylian Mbappe, the reigning top scorer, is expected to maintain his grip on the golden boot, but several clubs are looking to challenge him for the title.
Kylian Mbappe netted an impressive 31 goals in 34 league games last season, finishing four goals clear of Robert Lewandowski. However, several teams are eyeing a challenge for the top scorer title, with the likes of Lewandowski, Alexander Sorloth, Raphinha, Julian Álvarez, Ante Budimir, Gonzalo García, and the Williams brothers all potential threats.
As for the top-4 race, Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal are the main contenders. Bilbao's solid defensive record last season, with an xGA (expected goals against) only bettered by Atlético Madrid, has given them a higher chance of securing a Champions League spot compared to other teams just outside the usual top three. According to the Opta supercomputer model, Athletic Bilbao has approximately a 33%+ chance of finishing in the top four.
Villarreal, under the guidance of Marcelino, remains a competitive side with quality players and is expected to compete for a European place. The Yellow Submarine has a roughly 37.7% chance of securing the last Champions League spot, according to the Opta model, reflecting a typically competitive but somewhat variable recent performance level.
Real Betis, despite reaching the UEFA Conference League final last season, has a lower predicted probability (around 17.6%) of breaking into the top four. Their European run and potential squad improvements make them a dark horse but not the favorite for this spot.
Other teams like Real Sociedad, Osasuna, Celta Vigo, Valencia, and Girona have much lower probabilities (mostly under 12%) of making the top four and are thus considered more distant challengers or European contenders.
The main top three (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid) are expected to occupy the first three spots, with the battle for the last Champions League qualification place effectively between Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal, bolstered by their recent defensive solidity and squad stability.
Rayo Vallecano, one of Spain's last neighborhood clubs, is known for its offensive and attractive football and is expected to continue this trend in the upcoming season. Celta de Vigo has made positive moves this offseason, keeping club star Iago Aspas and signing Bryan Zaragoza on loan from Bayern Munich. Herrera expects Celta to challenge for Europe this season.
Meanwhile, Sevilla is always a threat in La Liga, despite struggling to qualify for Europe in recent years. The club remains the face of the Europa League having won the European trophy more than any other club.
As the transfer window closes, transfers such as Rashford to Barcelona (not directly impacting the last spot but influencing the top) Baena to Atlético, and more promising younger talents joining various clubs might shift dynamics but are not expected to dramatically alter the main challengers for the final top-4 place based on current projections.
However, Real Betis continues to improve under Manuel Pellegrini and with Isco pulling the strings, there is always a chance Betis could upset a big club and secure a place in the top four. The race for the Champions League spots in La Liga is shaping up to be an exciting one.
[1] Source: Opta Supercomputer Model [2] Source: Transfermarkt [4] Source: AS.com
Nico Williams, a promising talent, and his brother Iñaki Williams, both hailing from Athletic Bilbao, are among the potential threats to Kylian Mbappe's grip on the golden boot in the 2025-26 La Liga season. (Sports, football)
Ander Herrera's expectation of Celta de Vigo challenging for Europe in the upcoming season is fueled by the acquisition of Bryan Zaragoza on loan from Bayern Munich, keeping club star Iago Aspas, and the team's attractive playing style. (Sports, football)
