SPD facing battle to avoid relegation
The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) are fast approaching on September 14, 2025, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is gearing up for a competitive race. With NRW being the most populous federal state and serving as a kind of blueprint for the republic, these elections are considered a major political mood test since the federal election in February.
Bärbel Bas, the SPD's Bundestag president and a prominent experienced politician, represents stable, respected leadership within the party. Bas, a daughter of a bus driver and a housewife, embodies the working-class roots of the SPD. She joined the party through her work as a works councilor and has since become a beacon of hope for the SPD in Gelsenkirchen.
In the Ruhr area, the SPD is facing a close competition from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD, often compared to a wolf in sheep's clothing, is seen as having the interests of big capital in mind. However, the SPD is strong in understanding for the everyday problems of people, down-to-earthness, and credibility, while the AfD is not interested in the challenges faced by workers.
The elections could plausibly benefit from having more politicians like Bärbel Bas to improve the SPD's performance. More experienced, high-profile politicians like her could enhance the SPD’s credibility and voter confidence. The SPD could end up with 22 percent statewide, which is significantly better than their recent performance at the federal level, but still sobering for NRW.
The SPD is fighting to keep their former stronghold in NRW and it's a relegation battle. Some SPD members have suggested Bas as a potential top candidate for the 2027 NRW state election. Dirk Wiese, manager of the SPD parliamentary group, sees down-to-earth and pragmatic candidates running for mayor in NRW, such as Frank Dudda, Sören Link, Andrea Henze, Ralf Paul Bittner, and Nicole Reschke.
Political scientist Norbert Kersting from the University of Münster considers it unlikely that an AfD politician could move into a larger town hall in NRW due to the existing firewall of parties that rigorously distance themselves from the AfD. According to a Forsa poll from early July, the CDU, SPD, and Greens could suffer losses in the local elections, while AfD and Left could gain.
Bas has expressed interests in football, crime novels, British pop legends Sting and The Police, currywurst, fries, and Köpi (a Ruhr area beer). Her relatable personality and commitment to SPD values could potentially attract voters and sway the elections in the SPD's favour.
In conclusion, while there is no explicit evidence specifically linking Bärbel Bas to improved SPD performance in NRW elections, having more experienced, high-profile politicians like her could reasonably strengthen the SPD’s position in these local elections. The SPD's actual electoral success will depend on multiple factors including strategy, local issues, and competition from other parties like CDU and AfD.
Other politicians like Bärbel Bas could bolster the SPD's policy-and-legislation efforts, enhancing their credibility and voter confidence in the upcoming elections. The general-news surrounding the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia is rife with speculation about the SPD's ability to maintain their stronghold in the region, given the rising competition from parties like the AfD.
