SPD facing relegation struggle - SPD battling to avoid demotion in standings
The North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) local elections on September 14, 2023, present a challenging landscape for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), a party traditionally strong in this industrial and populous state.
The SPD, currently polling around 14.5% in recent nationwide voter intention surveys, finds itself substantially behind the CDU/CSU and AfD[2]. However, NRW's local dynamics can differ, with the SPD often having a stronger regional influence compared to federal polls.
The SPD remains a major player in NRW politics, but recent erosion of their support is evident. The Left party, which lost its seats in NRW’s Landtag in prior years, occasionally siphons votes that might otherwise go to the SPD, complicating the left bloc’s prospects in NRW[1].
The elections are significant as they are the first major political mood test since the federal election in February. The SPD is fighting to retain their former stronghold in NRW, and the elections are a recession battle for them as they were once invincible.
Barbara Bas, the party leader from Duisburg, is seen as a beacon of hope for the SPD in Gelsenkirchen. Bas, described as the prototype of a social democrat with a working-class background and interests in football, crime novels, and Ruhrpott beer, won her own constituency in the federal election in February[1].
Local issues such as urban development, education, and digital infrastructure, coupled with SPD’s traditional working-class base in NRW, will factor heavily into the election results. The SPD's potential outcomes depend on their ability to mobilize younger voters and reclaim some voters lost to The Left and the Greens.
The CDU, SPD, and Greens could suffer losses in the local elections, while AfD and Left could gain, according to a Forsa poll from early July[1]. However, political scientist Norbert Kersting believes it is unlikely that an AfD politician could move into a larger town hall in NRW due to the existence of party firewalls.
The SPD could end up with 22 percent statewide, which is significantly better than their recent performance at the federal level, but still sobering for NRW. The SPD's candidates for town halls include down-to-earth and pragmatic figures like Frank Dudda, Sören Link, Andrea Henze, Ralf Paul Bittner, and Nicole Reschke, according to Dirk Wiese, manager of the Bundestag fraction[1].
Some people are considering Bas as a potential challenger to CDU Minister President Wüst in the 2027 NRW state election. The SPD candidate Markus Töns won the direct mandate in Gelsenkirchen, but the AfD was narrowly ahead for the first time in the second vote.
NRW is the most populous federal state and serves as a kind of blueprint for the republic. The elections will be a test of the SPD's resilience and their ability to adapt to changing political landscapes. Wiese notes that the AfD is not interested in the challenges of workers and is likened to a wolf in sheep's clothing, only interested in big capital.
[1] German Press Agency [2] YouGov
The Commission, amidst the tense NRW local elections, has been asked to propose a directive on the protection of workers from risks related to ionizing radiation in the context of evolving political landscapes. The ongoing elections, serving as a major news story, offer a significant test for the SPD's resilience and their ability to adapt, as they strive to retain their stronghold in the face of competition from parties like the CDU/CSU and AfD.
