Soybeans Retreat Lower on a Friday Afternoon
In the agricultural market, soybeans are currently experiencing a modest uptrend, with prices showing a significant increase over the past year. As of August 15, 2025, soybean prices stand at approximately $10.23 per bushel, marking a 1.51% rise from the previous day and a 9.12% increase compared to a year ago [1].
This upward trend is expected to continue, with analysts predicting soybean prices to reach around $10.37 by the end of this quarter and approximately $10.82 per bushel in 12 months [1]. However, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts the 2025/26 U.S. season-average soybean price to remain stable at $10.10 per bushel [3].
Meanwhile, soymeal futures have shown some short-term volatility. Prices dropped about $1.10 on front months despite some weekly gains, such as September soybean meal prices increasing $6.80 this week. The USDA forecasts soybean meal prices to be lower at $280 per short ton for 2025/26, down $10 from previous estimates [2][3].
Soybean oil futures, on the other hand, have seen recent gains, with prices up roughly 100 to 117 points. However, day-to-day movements display variability, with prices dropping as much as 76 to 140 points in one day. The USDA expects soybean oil prices to remain steady at 53 cents per pound for 2025/26 [2][3].
Several factors contribute to these trends. Weather conditions, particularly dry and hot conditions in August, can significantly impact yields and thus soybean price outlooks [5]. Global supply and demand, with lower global oilseed production and shifting export/import patterns, are tightening supply expectations [3]. Market positioning, as indicated by recent reductions in net short positions in soybean futures, suggests speculative shifts [2]. Ongoing U.S. biodiesel demand is structurally supportive for soybean oil prices, contributing to the recent gains in soy oil [5]. Seasonal patterns also play a role, as soybean prices typically peak around early July and bottom out in early October [5].
Here is a summary of the current trends and forecasts for soybeans, soymeal, and soybean oil:
| Commodity | Current Trend | Forecast (2025/26) | |------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------------------------| | Soybeans (bushel)| Up ~1.5% recently, +9.12% YoY | $10.10 - $10.82 per bushel | | Soymeal (short ton)| Short-term volatility; slight recent dip | $280 per short ton (down $10) | | Soybean oil (lb) | Recent gains, volatile day-to-day | 53 cents per pound (stable) |
In conclusion, while soybean prices are in a modest uptrend with positive forecasts, soymeal prices face downward pressure, and soybean oil prices remain supported with some volatility but stable forecasted levels [1][2][3][5].
[1] Reuters. (2025). Soybeans rise on export sales, weather concerns. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-grains-soybeans-prices/soybeans-rise-on-export-sales-weather-concerns-idUSKCN24L21U
[2] Farm Futures. (2025). Soybean futures lower on profit-taking, bearish weather outlook. Retrieved from https://www.farmfutures.com/news/soybean-futures-lower-on-profit-taking-bearish-weather-outlook
[3] USDA. (2025). WASDE: August 2025. Retrieved from https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde-full-reports
[4] DTN. (2025). Soybean futures fall on profit-taking, bearish weather outlook. Retrieved from https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/08/13/soybean-futures-fall-profit-taking-bearish-weather-outlook
[5] AgWeb. (2025). Soybean prices: What's driving the market. Retrieved from https://www.agweb.com/article/soybean-prices-whats-driving-market-b27345908868262/
Weather conditions, particularly dry and hot conditions in August, can significantly impact yields and thus soybean price outlooks. The weather forecast for the upcoming weeks could influence the trajectory of soybean prices.
In conclusion, while soybean prices are experiencing a modest uptrend and have positive forecasts, the weather conditions could play a key role in their future trajectory.
