Soybeans End the Day with a Moderate Decline
In the agricultural market, the USDA's Fats & Oils report for June 2025 revealed a significant milestone with 197.1 million bushels of soybeans crushed - a record for the month and above trade estimates [1]. However, the closing price for Soybeans for November 25, 2025, was slightly lower at $9.89 1/4 [2].
On July 30, 2025, Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.894 billion lbs, slightly higher than in May but still down 10.85% from the same period last year [3]. Soy Oil posted losses of 20 to 86 points at the close on July 30, while Soymeal futures saw gains of $3.30 to $5.70/ton [3]. The Cash Bean price on July 30 was $9.31 1/2, and the closing price for Soybeans for September 25 was $9.69 1/2 [2]. Soybean futures for August and November decreased this week by 37 cents and 3 3/4 cents, respectively [4].
Current trends for soybean, soymeal, and soy oil prices in mid-2025 show a mixed picture. U.S. soybean prices have slightly declined recently, trading near $9.64 per bushel as of August 1, 2025, which is about 6.5% lower compared to the same time last year [4]. The USDA forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year price is $10.25 per bushel, mildly higher than the previous year at $9.95 per bushel [1].
Soymeal prices have been forecasted at about $310 per short ton for 2025/26, remaining steady compared to previous months, but market commentary indicates some recent price softness, with soymeal futures dropping around $1.50 recently [1][4]. Soy oil prices, after a recent upward revision to $0.53 per pound forecast, are now expected at $0.46 per pound for 2025/26, showing some volatility and recent declines alongside soybean price moves and competitive oils like palm oil [1][3].
Weather has played a key role in influencing these trends. Recent USDA reports noted improvements in U.S. soybean crop conditions, rising to 70% rated "good" to "excellent" as of late July 2025, up 2 points from the previous week [4]. This suggests more favorable growing conditions, likely reducing concerns over supply shortages.
Regionally, increased production forecasts in other oilseed markets (rapeseed in the EU, sunflower in Argentina, and palm oil in Malaysia) contribute to competitive pressure on soybean oil prices globally [1]. Malaysian palm oil prices have seen fluctuations with recent support from a weaker ringgit and improved demand from India, influencing soy oil markets downstream [4].
The net position of the large managed money speculators in soybean futures and options is now 36,311 contracts, with the large managed money speculators adding 25,445 contracts to their net short as of July 29 [5].
In summary, soybean and soymeal prices face some downward pressure from improved U.S. weather conditions and crop prospects, while soybean oil prices are affected by both weather and competitive dynamics in global vegetable oil markets. The outlook remains cautiously steady to slightly lower in the near term, with USDA projections stable into 2025/26 but with regional weather and international supply conditions continuing to be key variables [1][2][3][4].
All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. The reader is directed to view the website's Disclosure Policy for more information. No information about the position of Austin Schroeder in any securities mentioned in the article was provided.
The forecast for the next 7 days in IA, MO, and the ECB shows a drier pattern, with the Plains seeing light totals to just over an inch [6].
- Despite the positive developments in the agricultural market, such as the record-breaking soybean crush in June 2025, the sporting world remains unaffected, with the focus on upcoming events and player performances.
- As the weather in IA, MO, and the ECB is predicted to be drier over the next 7 days [6], farmers might find relief, but the sports enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the impact of this weather change on their favorite outdoor games.
