South Korea's Premature Presidential Election in 2025: Essential Facts
Voters in South Korea are gearing up for a new president, as Yoon Suk-yeol was booted out due to his failed and ill-advised martial law attempt. The election on June 3 is crucial, with significant implications for South Korea's democratic future, along with its relationships with China, the United States, and its nuclear-armed neighbor, North Korea.
The winner will serve a single term, but they'll face the challenge of mending the damage from the six-hour martial law decree that created political pandemonium, including mass protests, court riots, and multiple interim leaders within six months. They'll also need to tackle a deepening economic recession and tariff negotiations with the US.
Here's what you need to know about the upcoming election:
Who's running?
Five candidates are on the ballot, but it's between Lee Jae-myung of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP) and Kim Moon-soo of the governing conservative People Power Party (PPP).
Who's the favorite?
Lee, a 61-year-old human rights lawyer-turned-politician, is the clear frontrunner. According to a recent Gallup Korea poll, 49% of respondents favor Lee, while 36% prefer Kim, who is a staunch conservative and former labor minister in Yoon's administration.
Trailing behind is Lee Jun-seok of the conservative New Reform Party at 9%.
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What's at stake?
The martial law debacle has cast a long shadow over the race, potentially propelling Lee back to the presidency after losing to Yoon in 2022. As the leader of the opposition, Lee played a crucial role in thwarting Yoon's plan. On December 3, when Yoon declared martial law in an effort to subdue the Democratic Party-dominated parliament, which he painted as "anti-state" and a "den of criminals," Lee scaled the walls of the National Assembly to avoid hundreds of armed troops. He livestreamed his escape, urging supporters to storm the parliament and prevent the arrest of legislators.
Although the troops barricaded the assembly, enough legislators managed to make it through and voted to end martial law. The assembly eventually impeached Yoon on December 14.
"This election wouldn't have happened if not for Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law and his subsequent impeachment," said Youngshik Bong, a research fellow at Yonsei University in Seoul. "These issues have sucked in everyonelike a vortex. Every other issue is marginal."
On the campaign trail, Lee has promised to bring those involved in Yoon's failed bid to justice and tighten controls on the president's ability to declare martial law.
The candidates' views on martial law
Lee has also proposed constitutional changes to institute a four-year, two-term presidency, as well as a run-off system for presidential elections if no candidate secures 50% of the popular vote. The PPP's Kim has accepted Lee's proposal for a two-term presidency, but suggests shortening each term to three years.
The PPP is juggling with a crisis and disarray following Yoon's martial law bid. Infighting plagued the party as it struggled to choose Yoon's successor. Despite Kim winning the party primary, party leaders attempted to substitute him with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. On the eve of the party launch, they canceled Kim's candidacy, only to reinstate him when party members rebelled.
Bong believes the infighting and conservative divisions over Yoon's decree have eroded support. "Kim Moon-soo hasn't articulated a clear stance on the martial law declaration," Bong said. "He hasn't distanced himself from Yoon's legacy, but he also hasn't clarified whether he views the declaration as a constitutional violation. So the PPP hasn't really had enough energy to mobilize support bases."
Despite the gap in support at the start of the campaign, Kim has managed to erode Lee's lead. However, he has failed to convince third-place candidate Lee Jun-seok to abandon his bid or unite with the PPP to improve their chances.
Foreign policy matters
Though policy debates have taken a backseat, the election outcome could reshape South Korea's approach to North Korea. The two neighbors are technically still at war as the Korean War ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty, and relations are currently at a low. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for rewriting the country's constitution to eliminate the longstanding goal of unifying the war-divided nations and described Seoul as an "invariable principal enemy."
Lee of the Democratic Party has pledged to ease tensions if elected, including restoring a military hotline and committing to preserving the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula. Kim, by contrast, has supported Yoon's hardline stance, promising to secure "pre-emptive deterrence" through tools such as ballistic missiles and the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons. He has also suggested pursuing a path for the country to develop nuclear weapons by securing the right to reprocess nuclear fuel, a key step towards weaponization.
The candidates also differ in their approach to the US, the country's most essential security ally, and China, its largest trading partner.
Lee, who advocates a pragmatic foreign policy, has emphasized the need for maintaining the alliance with the U.S. and pursuing security cooperation with Japan. However, he wants to prioritize national interests and asserted no need to unnecessarily antagonize China or Russia.
Kim, by contrast, has questioned Lee's commitment to the US-South Korea alliance and pledged to hold an immediate summit with US President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs. He has also indicated a willingness to negotiate sharing more of the cost of stationing US troops in the country.
Former South Korean diplomat Lee Sung-yoonbelieves the policy differences between the rival camps are "immutable" and referenced earlier comments by the Democratic Party's Lee, which some view as being soft on China and Russia. "Some view him as too accommodating towards China and Russia," Sung-yoon said. However, Lee has tried to walk back some of his statements during the campaign to appeal to more moderate voters, Sung-yoon added.
- The political tension in South Korea, heightened by the failed martial law attempt, has brought human rights and policy-and-legislation to the forefront of the general news, with the upcoming election being a critical test for South Korea's democratic future and its relationships with neighboring nations like China, the United States, and North Korea.
- The race for presidency in South Korea is dwindling down to two major contenders: Lee Jae-myung, the human rights lawyer-turned-politician from the Democratic Party of Korea, and Kim Moon-soo, the staunch conservative and former labor minister from the People Power Party.
- Foreign policy matters, particularly South Korea's approach to North Korea and its relationship with its key allies like the United States and China, are at stake in the upcoming election. The candidates' views on issues such as the Korean Peninsula's nuclear weapons, military cooperation with the United States, and economic partnership with China, will significantly impact the nation's future course of action.
